DozOnLife
  • Blogs
    • Sports
    • Music
    • TV
    • Movies
    • Advice
    • Everything Else
  • About
  • Contact

DOL 2019 (2020) Conference Championship Weekend Picks/Preview

1/18/2020

0 Comments

 
Picture
For the first time since my freshmen year of college (2010-11), the New England Patriots will not be playing in the AFC Championship game. Their record of 8 straight Conference Championship Games was longer than Andrew Luck's entire NFL career (one of their many victims in said AFCCGs) and snapped by the Eddie Vedder, still alive Tennessee Titans.  A string of 8 straight AFCCG (5-3 overall; 3-2 in Super Bowls) will likely never be seen again. Claps for my Pats. 

Before the Patriots, the record was five straight by the Oakland Raiders from 1973-1977 (1-4 overall; 1-0 in the Super Bowl). Back in the days where only four teams made the playoffs aka it was way fucking easier.  S/o John Madden, one of my football heroes.

Third quarter? John Madden knew that’s flavor country time. pic.twitter.com/UsDWrZ5AXk

— Super 70s Sports (@Super70sSports) February 25, 2019
​In the NFL's 100th year of existence (#NFL100) there's a beautiful #narrative still v much in the mix; we could have a rematch of the First AFL-NFL World Championship Game! Chiefs-Packers.
Picture
It wasn't until Super Bowl IV when the Super Bowl was officially recognized as the "Super Bowl".  "Super Bowl" was just an unofficial nickname coined by Lamar Hunt to combat the wordy "AFL-NFL World Championship Game." Yet another example of the AFL being ahead of the times. 
Both Conference Championship match ups are rematches of games from earlier in the year. Going into the season, I didn't even think the Titans or 49ers would be anywhere close to the playoffs, but that is the beauty of the NFL. With the exception of the New England Patriots dominating for anywhere between 12-14 regular season wins a year, there is not much that stays the same year-to-year in the NFL. Just look at the AFC South since 2014. 
Picture
There's been at least four new playoff teams every year for, I believe, 29 years in a row. I saw a graphic this week that I should've saved. Don't worry, I just slapped myself as punishment. 

Obviously, I would prefer that the Patriots were still in the fight, but I'll be honest with you. After 8 straight AFC Championship Games it's kind of nice having a year off.  It's a lot less stressful, let someone else get a chance. With the exception of the Packers, none of these teams have won a championship in 25+ years (if ever).

Sometimes, I wish the Patriots success was more spread out.  Don't get me wrong, I love this run and so grateful it happened when it happened, but of course, as a spoiled boi, I worry about later in life. I mean they won 3 out 4, nothing for a decade, then 3 out of 5. It's gonna fucking suck if they go like 38 years without a Super Bowl, which is really not that hard to do; the Chiefs haven't made the Super Bowl since the 1969 season (final year of the AFL). Will their 50 year absence end tomorrow?
Picture
With Tom Brady (and the Patriots) out of the mix, it means there will be a new World Champion. As I previously mentioned, all four teams that are still in the (Lamar) hunt have not won a championship in some time:

  • The Tennessee Titans last Super Bowl appearance came in the 1999 season when they were stopped a yard short from going to overtime against the greatest show on turf. This organization has not won a league championship since they were the Houston Oilers in 1961; the 2nd year of the AFL. (Houston won the first two AFL championships in 1960 and 1961)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have not won (or appeared) in the Super Bowl since the 1969 season when they were still in the AFL.
  • The San Francisco 49ers last Super Bowl appearance was Super Bowl XLVII when they lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens. Before that they were 5-0 in the big game, winning Super Bowls in 1981, '84, 88-89, and '94.
  • The Green Bay Packers last won (and appeared) in the Super Bowl in the 2010 season. They defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25 in Super Bowl XLV and were only the second 6-seed to win it all (Tennessee is attempting to be the third). The Packers have won four Super Bowls (1966, '67, '96, 2010)

Here's the Sunday slate and my picks from year's past. 

2017
2018
2019

AFC Championship Game: Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Missouri. 3:05 PM (EST) CBS
Picture
Picture
This is a rare "I'm happy either way" match-up.  I love both coaches and despite a recent run-in with KC as an AFC power, I have nothing but love for that organization. I am a HUGE AFL-history guy. I have a ton of respect for what the Chiefs mean in the story of both the AFL and NFL. I've watched the '69 Chiefs America's Game on YouTube 20+ times. 
Picture
The Titans-Chiefs week 10 match up in Nashville was a turning point for both franchises.

When the Titans came back from a 29-20 fourth quarter deficit to win 35-32, to me that was the official "okay they have something with Tannehill" moment. That was a season changing win for the Titans. Going into the game TEN was 4-5; winning got them to .500. The Titans went 4-2 down the stretch to grab the 6 seed. After having one of the worst offenses in the NFL with Aloha Jesus; Mr. "idk what teams are in my division",  Tractorcito and Corey Davis have totally changed the Titan offense. The Titans have scored over 30 points five times with Tannehill as their QB. 

The week 10 game was also the last time the Chiefs lost. They are clearly a different (and better team) now. It was Mahomes first start after a three week absence and still was a clearly winnable game for KC; as I mentioned they were up 9 in the 4th quarter. Since then, the Chiefs have not slowed down. Coming off a roller coaster 20 point win against the Texans, you know they're not satisfied.

The Titans actually have fared quite well against the Chiefs the last few years. They've won 4 straight (three at Arrowhead) match ups; including the infamous Mariota TD pass to himself game, where the Chiefs blew a 21-3 lead in Alex Smith's final start with the team. Both teams have different starting QBS now but that game was only two years ago. These are not the same exact teams, but there's a lot of guys still around. This is not a team scared of going into Arrowhead. Especially with Mike Vrabel's dick on the line.
To beat the Chiefs again I think (along with many people paid to give their opinion) the Titans need to follow the Patriots' formula of controlling the clock in the first half with long run-heavy sustained drives in last year's AFCCG. It's no secret the Titans have been riding Tractorcito throughout the postseason. Tannehill is putting Bob Griese numbers; under 100 yards passing in both playoff games. Football wisdom would make you think the Chiefs are going to do all they can do make Tannehill beat them. We may see 10 men in the box. 

The Chiefs defense is much improved from 2018 where they were 24th in points and 31st in yards allowed respectively. In 2019 they're 7th and 17th, but one thing you can still do against the Chiefs is pound the rock. KC was 26th in rushing yards against in 2019. Derrick Henry can have a field day against the defense. He ran for 188 and 2 TDs in week 10. 

Kansas City showed last week they are NEVER dead. They erased a 24-0 2nd quarter deficit BY HALF TIME. This offense is as explosive as Andy Reid's diarrhea after 3 t-bones. As a narrative guy you best believe I know the Chiefs know the narratives around this game:
  • Andy Reid has a chance to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2004 (If he did he'd be only (I believe) the 7th coach to lead multiple franchises to the Super Bowl)
  • Andy Reid is widely considered best coach in the game w/o a ring. What this would mean for his legacy...blah, blah, blah
  • The Chiefs haven't been to the Super Bowl in 50 years.
  • The way they lost the AFCCG in OT last year....wah we didn't get the ball!
  • They went "under the radar" this year in the AFC because of Lamar Jackson and the Pats D historic start...playing the disrespect card
I am so torn on this game because I really could see it going either way. The first quarter is going to be huge for how this game plays out because the Titans are not a team that is built to come back down three scores (unlike the Chiefs).

I could soooo see a scenario similar to last year's AFCCG where TEN has maybe a 10-0, 14-0, 17-7 type lead early, they've been dominating T.O.P. but the Chiefs just wake up and go on one of their GSW- like point bukukke runs and all of a sudden they're up 7. I think for the Titans to have any chance this game has to played at their pace.

​**wild Titans stat** they've made zero field goals since week 13. 

Normally I like to defer, but if I'm either team I want the ball first here to try to dictate the pace early. I think it would be foolish for KC to chose to give the Titans the ball to potentially drained 7+ minutes off the clock en route to Derrick Henry carrying the ball 8+ times for a touchdown. 

The smart pick is the Chiefs and while I would not be upset seeing them win (and I'm low key rooting for the Super Bowl I rematch) if I were to bet this game Titans ML +280 is just too juicy to pass up. They've beaten the Pats and Ravens on the road so far. Despite KC being "soooo hard" to play at road teams are 9-3 in the playoffs their in the last 12 games. As I say this it wouldn't blow my mind if the Chiefs find away to contain Henry and the clock somehow strikes Midnight for Tannehill at the worst possible time as he is playing for a contract and been super....a horrible AFCCG could erase all of that. Fuck it..I'm rolling with the Titans. Andy Reid is 1-5 in AFC/NFC Championship Games. These playoffs are going FULL 2011.

Titans 28
Chiefs 24


Derrick Henry 200+ yards as he continues to have a 2014 Madison Bumgarner type run.

The 2019-2020 NFL playoffs really are turning into 2011-12 NFL playoffs. Saints 13-3 played in WC. 2019 Ravens are 2011 Packers. SF hosting NFCCG again. 9-7 team may end up winning the Super Bowl.

— Doz (very niche!) #hiredozo (@DozonLife) January 12, 2020
NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Levi Stadium Santa Clara, California 6:40 PM (EST) FOX
Picture
Picture
In another rematch from the regular season we have two young coaches facing off for a chance at the Lombardi. LaFleur is a rookie HC and Shanahan is only in year three.

Back in week 12 the 49ers embarrassed the Packers 38-7 in front of a Nationally Televised audience on Sunday Night Football. The Packers were 0-2 in the state of California during the 2019 regular season and outscored 63-19 in the Redwood State. 

I have been one of the biggest 49er haters all season long and they've continue to prove me wrong all the way to the NFC Championship Game; the Niners first since the 2013 season. 

The Packers have won ugly all year long and are returning to the NFC championship game for the 4th time in the 2010's (league years); 1-2 to this point.

Everybody and their mother is picking the 49ers to win this game. ​

I tried to email these pictures to myself for 20 minutes for this blog. Hey Gmail...WAKE TF UP. pic.twitter.com/TCqAtp6DoO

— Doz (very niche!) #hiredozo (@DozonLife) January 18, 2020


I am not. 


For one simple reason.

Picture
NARRATIVE!!!

This season has all the makings of a Super Bowl year for the Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers still isn't over being snubbed by the 49ers 1st overall in 2005.
  • I think losing 37-8 matters. The Packers will be ready. Historically teams have bounced back from embarrassing regular season losses to "shock" that same team in the playoffs. 2010 Jets against Patriots immediately comes to mind. 
  • Aaron Rodgers has totally changed the way he's played this year, as he is low key 35 years old. The Packers have flown under the radar despite winning 13 games. When they lose, they lose UGLY. They are finally playing team football. 
  • The Packers (and Aaron Rodgers) haven't been to the Super Bowl since the 2010 season. That was the last time the Pats didn't make the conference championship game. It would be kind of cool to have the decade book-ended with Packer's Super Bowls and 8 years of Patriots running train on the AFC in between. If he wants to be truly considered an all-timer he needs this ring. I think being left of the NFL 100 list may be some motivation

I like Jimmy G, but do not want to see him in the Super Bowl right now.  He still hasn't overly impressed me this year, but making the Super Bowl is making the Super Bowl. Debo Samuel is a monster and they have 93 running backs that can beat you. To me this game is all about George Kittle. Packers cannot let him be Jimmy G's security blanket.  I don't know why, but history has me thinking the 49ers find a way to lose this game. They've lost the NFC Championship game 9 times; 1970-71, 83, 90, 92-93, 97, 2011 and 2013.

One thing that worries me about the Packers is how they don't play complete football games. Last week was a perfect example. They went up 21-3 and nearly blew that game. They progressively score less as the game goes on. Fuck man, I really want to pick the Packers, but even I am having a hard time justifying it. The 49ers are the better team and should win this game, but the 2019 NFL season has been pure chaos. After a streak of 10 straight home teams winning conference championship games I think the road warrior trend continues.

Packers 27
49ers 20
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016

Proudly powered by Weebly
  • Blogs
    • Sports
    • Music
    • TV
    • Movies
    • Advice
    • Everything Else
  • About
  • Contact