I went 0-4 picking winners last week.
(3-1 ATS though on the blog)
Only thing I got right was that I said it was going to be a wild weekend, which it was. Road teams went 3-1 straight up. Both 6 seeds moved on. The only thing that wasn't a surprise is that Cody Parkey missed a field to end the Bears season. It all began with the Texans going back to being the fraud organization like I said they were YEARS ago.
I really need to bring back the fraud list.
I deserve everything I got for betting on them to win.
That game completely changed my outlook on DeShaun Watson going forward. You wanna talk about chums? Hey dude, maybe don't signal for the first down when you're down 90 points at home in the playoffs and the Colts are letting you run the ball and waste time.
The Seahawks lost their kicker and had to go for two late, which totally impacted the spread, not to mention their play calling knowing on every drive a field goal was simply not an option. Lamar Jackson turned back into a pumpkin, but in his defense I think the play calling did him no favors. Run, run, pass every series gets more predictable than the Guy meets girl, guy and girl have something good, guy fucks up, and eventually wins back girl plot line in every romantic comedy ever made. If he didn't' wait until the 4th quarter to start completing passes I think the Ravens could've actually pulled it off. The Chargers were not impressive at all IMO. I think they just benefited from playing a rookie QB for the 2nd time in three weeks to prepare for him. Granted the Ravens defense is one of the best in the NFL, but what the Chargers accomplished offensively last week does not impress me. Settling for field goals (especially with their kicker) is not going to end well in the playoffs.
As for the games this week, coming off an 0-4 on the blog winner wise I need to do better. Even if what really matters is the spread for our sake ;) Let's take a look at the games that make up the unofficial best football weekend of the year.
(6) Indianapolis Colts vs (1) Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
4:35 pm Saturday NBC
It's hard to judge the Colts after beating the fraud ass Texans, but they have to be the most surprising story of the season.
From Josh McDaniels leaving them at the alter, to 1-5 after 6 games, now they're in the divisional round.
Nobody on earth saw this coming. Maybe Jim Irsay when he was tripping on expired pills? But that's it.
They've gone 1-0 like 10 of the last 11 weeks. Andrew Luck is looking like he did pre-2015 and all of a sudden this team has a great offensive line, and solid defense. Not to mention the greatest kicker in NFL history. The Colts are that team nobody wants to play. They are scary AF. Marlon Mack is going to destroy the Chiefs front 7.
The Chiefs offense has been remarkable this season. They average just a tick over 35 points a game and are the first team in five years (2013 Broncos) who can say that. Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns and used both arms. Neato! Travis Kelce had the all-time single season TE receiving yardage record for about 15 minutes, and they won 12 games for the 2nd time in 3 years. It was another great regular season in KC.
That being said, I am never picking the Chiefs in the playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-11 in the playoffs since 1993, yes you read that correctly 1-11 with that one win coming in 2015 against the Houston fucking Texans and Brian Hoyer. So essentially this organization hasn't won a real playoff game since 1993.
Here is a list of years the Kansas City Chiefs have made the playoffs since 1993:
Now here is a list of every year the Chiefs lost their first home playoff game.
The two years that weren't included (1994 and 2013) they still lost their first game, they just were on the road.
"BuT doZo tHoSe tEaMs diDn't HavE paTricK mAhoMes"
Dude, I don't give a fuck. HOW MANY TIMES DO I NEED TO SAY I'M A NARRATIVE GUY!!? The narrative is and always will be until they prove otherwise that the Chiefs just don't "do" winning in the playoffs. Maybe it's because in football they call it year the season started season instead of when it starts and ends. Like it's just the 2018 season even though these games are played in 2019. Maybe the Chiefs over the years didn't wanna confuse people by winning during the year that wasn't mentioned in the season? Their bodies and brains can't compute that they're playing a 2018 game in 2019. Of course I'm talking about years past but just using that year for my example. Idk bro. But did you know Andy Reid has lost his last four home playoff games when favored?
Have you seen this Chiefs defense?
I have and they're fucking horrible.
The Chiefs have lost home playoff games in a litany of different ways during this run with like 47 different quarterbacks. They've missed kicks, they haven't gotten teams off the field, they've had holdings take game tying 2 point conversions off the board, they've blown 28 point leads (granted that was on the road), and they've had QB throw touchdowns to themselves against them. So yeah, even with Patrick Mahomes I still don't believe in this organization. Which sucks too because I like the Chiefs. I'm a big fan of the old AFL and their story.
Without Kareem Hunt this offense is not nearly as scary and with an average at best kicker and defense who does nothing well I'm going with history and my brain. The Colts are a much more balanced team than the Chiefs. They finished 5th in points for and 10th in points allowed. People say Arrowhead is one of the toughest places to play in the league even though every single team that goes into Arrowhead leaves with a playoff win. Until the Chiefs prove me wrong I am riding this wave. As a Patriot fan I'd rather go into KC than get the Colts at home. And the Patriots own the Colts historically, especially Andrew Luck, that's how much I don't trust the Chiefs.
Taking the Colts +5.5 is for sure the smart play. If you have the balls to go straight up ML, more power to you.
(4) Dallas Cowboys vs (2) Los Angeles Rams -7.5
8:15 PM FOX
To me the Rams are basically the Chiefs with worse uniforms. Fantastic offense with no defense whatsoever.
At least for the Rams they're getting their star running back...back. Todd Gurley is expected to play.
They do get to play at "home" but given their lack of support and the Cowboys following it's expected to be close to 50-50 Rams-Cowboys fans at the Coliseum.
I think 7.5 is a huge number for this game. As I write this I'm still not that confident in picking either team to win, but I think this game is really close. Both teams love to run the ball which should shorten the game and favors the Cowboys if they can keep the Rams off the field. I wouldn't be completed shocked to see the Rams cover since the Cowboys are a much worse team on the road (3-5), but given the fact this game is going to be played outside... in Los Angeles... in front of a ton of Cowboy fans I don't think that really matters too much.
Imo the Rams need this game much more, obviously both teams want to win in the playoffs, but the Cowboys are the Cowboys. Nobody is gonna be surprised if they lose. They won their home playoff game and stole the division in a year where they started 3-5. This year was a success for the Cowboys. Dak and Garrett already earned their contract extensions.
The Rams on the other hand lost their home game as a division winner last year with a prolific offense. This year they got a bye and were even better offensively, averaging 3 points a game more than 2017. Everybody loves to blow Sean McVay as this hot, smart, innovative, new style of offensive minded playing genius head coach, but if the Rams lose their first playoff game again I feel like the heat is gonna be turned up in L.A. He'd he 0-2 at home in the playoffs. Not great! I still really don't love Jared Goff as a passer either. I don't trust him in crunch time. Just looking at the guy's face tells me all I need to know. That dude just doesn't look like a Super Bowl winner.
I think what plays to the Rams favor however is they are the more desperate team for all the reasons I just said, not to mention all the guys they added this off season. They are in a win now mode while Goff and Gurley are still on rookie deals. It will be a major disappoint for this franchise if they can't move on this week. The pressure could cause them to buckle, and Dak is statistically one of the best 4th quarter QB's ever, but the Cowboys have been disappointing their fans for last 20 years which is why gun to my head I think the Rams eek this game out. I think it's going to be one of the most fun games of the entire weekend, and like the Colts-Chiefs game I do love the underdog to cover.
(5) Los Angeles Chargers vs (2) New England Patriots -4
1:05 pm Sunday CBS
The Chargers are better than the Patriots in pretty much every category except head coach and quarterback. If you were to list out the top 30 players in this game, like 22 of them would be Chargers. The Chargers have been basically playing on the road every game for the last 2 years and with the Patriots clearly not the same team they've been the last few years everything seems to be in play for a Chargers upset. They're not scared to come into Foxboro.
I'm not gonna lie, I've lost faith at times in this Patriot team. So inconsistent. Lack of play makers. I am really pissed off at how they built this team for what is likely one of Tom Brady's final playoff runs. Fucking load up! Instead they had a mini-fire sale. They had to rely on Josh Gordon this year because they didn't address their WR depth properly this off-season. Can't blame a junkie for being a junkie (completely have changed my take from my blog about him earlier)
I have been talking about betting against the Patriots in the divisional round for deep because I don't have a ton of faith in the way they've looked the last few weeks. Emotional hedge baby!
That is exactly why I love the Patriots to win this game.
I still think they're a long shot to win the Super Bowl, but at this point you never know? It's still Brady and Belichick, even if we can for see the end is closer than it may appear. Somewhat surprisingly despite the lack of stars defensively this unit is sound. 7th in points allowed. I like Phil Rivers a lot as a QB and he's #1 on my non-Patriots I wanna see win the Super Bowl list, but I think given the weather and the fact that the Chargers have to travel back to the east coast is huge for the Patriots. Plus he's 1-7 career against the Pats with the 1 win coming against Matt Cassel in 2008.
If it snows I love the Patriots chances even more. Have the Chargers ever won a game in the snow? Serious question. Chargers being +4 is very interesting to me since they can lose by 3 and still cover, but I have this feeling the Patriots win with relative ease. It makes zero sense and I'm aware of that, but everybody seems to be ready to write the dynasty off and say it's over. Whenever that happens the Patriots seem to show why they are still the Patriots. Even with how poorly Gronk has played as of late I don't think you can write him off. If at 5 on Sunday Gronk has 7 catches for 110 and 2 touchdowns I won't be surprised. I just don't see him going out this shell of himself that he's been all year.
The last thing I'll say about this game is that the Colts-Chiefs outcome will impact this game, if the Chiefs lose and the Patriots players know despite never admitting it to the media that if they win they get the AFCCG at home I love the Pats chances even more.
(6) Philadelphia Eagles vs. (1) New Orleans Saints
4:40 PM Sunday FOX
Defending champs against the Super Bowl favorite. Sean Payton has been game planning for this game since last year, that has to give a slight edge to the Saints.
Nick Foles Cinderella story just doesn't seem to end. After knocking off the bears 16-15 last week everybody is talking about that BDN mojo. Can he really lead the Eagles back to the Super Bowl? Part of me wants to see that just because of the terror it will cause in Philly. I would love to see them actually do the impossible and trade Carson Wentz just to see how people would react. It's nuts. The Eagles finally win a Super Bowl and they don't want that quarterback.
I love the Saints roster, and the fact that Sean Payton pulled the ultimate football guy move this week by bringing in the Lombardi trophy on a stack of $250,000 telling them if they want this to win 3 fuckin games it's really hard to pick against the Saints this week.
The only question I think is do they cover or not? At around 8.5 depending where you get it that gives you a lot of wiggle room as an Eagles backer, but I feel like the magic has to run out eventually. I'm not gonna touch this game but if I was I'd think taking the points is the move even though I'm about to predict a 10 point Saints win. I am so excited to watch this game and see how wild the Superdome is. I would love to see Taysom Hill find the endzone. I think Drew Brees need another Super Bowl ring to truly cement his legacy as an all-time great and he knows that.