NFL win total over/unders just came out a great day for NFL fans and gamblers a like. I'm going to go through each one and say if I like the Over or Under, and base my confidence in each pick. Let's go!
(For those of you who don't know what the -130, EVEN, +120 numbers mean it's based off of a payouts. If a bet pays -130 it means you'd have to risk $130 to win $100. Even means how it sounds, $100 pays out $100 and +120 means betting $100 would pay out $120 in a win)
Let's work from the ground up:
Cleveland Browns: O/U 4.5 wins. Give me the OVER (-130). Browns will just beat this and go 5-11, maybe 6-10. I believe in RGIII (very stupid of me to say) to get them a handful of wins, and it's first year under new head coach Hue Jackson, I like him a lot, I can see the browns finding a way to win over 4 games. At -130 I think there is decent value here and give you a lot of wiggle room. Under 4.5 is just way too low for my liking.
Tennessee Titans: O/U 5.5 wins. I like Mariota a lot, I think this division is gonna be sneaky good. I think the Titans and Jags are both young, upcoming teams. I don't have a ton of confidence in this and is one I would not bet on. I'd take the OVER (-160). Just because I love Aloha Jesus and might move to Tennessee to teach (probably not) but on 3MP I said I like the Titans to shock the NFL and make noise in the AFC South so give me the over.
San Francisco 49ers: O/U 5.5 wins. I'll take the UNDER (-110). Who is their QB? Kap or Gabbert? Everybody on the team retired. It's crazy not that long ago this team was one of the best in the NFL but when you lose 40% of your roster and a great head coach you start to suck. I can't decide if I like Chip Kelly or not. I guess I hate him. The NFC West is a very good division at the top with the Cardinals and Seahawks. I could see the 49ers being one of the worst teams in the NFL.
San Diego Chargers: O/U 7 wins. I'll reluctantly take the UNDER (-135). I used to hate the Chargers during the LT days but I've grown to really like Phil Rivers. Just don't see this team finishing .500 or better. Push wouldn't shock me. Pretty confident this team will not go over 7 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles: O/U 7 wins. UNDER (-130). New coach, rookie QB. Philly sucks. Give me the under. Love the under.
New Orleans Saints: O/U 7 wins. OVER (+100). Saints aren't very good but I don't see Drew Brees even at his advanced age having 3 straight losing seasons. I could see this team finishing 8-8. Don't love this pick though, would have it towards the low end on my confidence meter. NFC South is a shitshow.
Miami Dolphins: O/U 7 wins. UNDER (-110). Defense is "good", Ryan Tannehill is not. LOVE the under. 5-11 or 6-10 sounds about right for Miami. Sorry Kyle.
Detroit Lions: O/U 7 wins. UNDER (+100) This is the most confident I've been in any of the listed over/unders yet. Calvin Johnson just retired, Matt Stafford was awful even with the best WR of my generation. Now that he doesn't have the safety blanket that is megatron I could see this team winning 3-5 games. What did the Lions start like 1-7 then some how finish with a respectable record? Don't trust this team to go .500 or better. I would be SHOCKED. I LOVE the under. I might even bet on that.
Washington Redskins: O/U 7.5 wins. UNDER (-110) This is where things get tough. Redskins looked awful last year then somehow went 9-7. NFC East was terrible, somebody had to win it and it was the Redskins. I actually like Kirk Cousins a lot but nobody has won the NFC East in back to back years since the Eagles won it four years in a row from 2001-2004. It I had to bet on it I'd go under just because the history shows the Skins will probably take a step back in 2016. This one is pretty hard to me and with both sides at -110 it looks like even Vegas doesn't know what to expect. I could see the Skins going 7-9 and having the under just hit. I'd stay away from this bet entirely.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O/U 7.5 wins. UNDER (-110). Another one where Vegas is trying to cover it's ass by having the over and under both at -110. I like Jameis a lot. I think Tampa Bay could have a bright future but Tampa has finished in last place every year since 2011. They have a new head coach this year, Dirk Koetter, who in his previous coaching jobs was nothing special. This team was 5-5 at one point last year but finished 6-10. I just wouldn't put money on saying the Tampa Bay Bucs are gonna finish .500 or better. I'd say on scale of 1-10 I'm a 7.5 in confidence that they Bucs will win under 8 games.
Los Angeles Rams: O/U 7.5 wins. OVER (+120). In their first year back in LA, and with a new QB I think the Rams could surprise the whole NFL and finish with 8 or 9 wins. With Jeff Fisher as your coach you know the team is going to hover around .500 all year. Rams aren't the most talented bunch on offense but I like their defense a lot. Rookie QB Goff could become an LA star if this team hits the over. I feel like I've been taking too many favorites, I'll roll the dice and say the Rams finish 8-8. That is OVER 7.5 give me the over baby.
Jacksonville Jaguars: O/U 7.5 wins. (OVER -150). I feel like a sucker for loving the over so much but I really do think the Jags are a talented bunch, everybody is saying they won the draft, it was just announced today that their first pick Jalen Ramsey out of FSU is gonna be out for a while but as a die hard barstool fan, I've learned to love Blake Bortles. I think in a weak AFC the AFC South is going to be the most competitive division. I could see the Jaguars going 9-7. I like the over a lot, don't love it, but I like it a lot.
Chicago Bears: O/U 7.5 wins. (UNDER -110). I like the Bears as a team, big Cutler guy even though he sucks but I am not going to be blinded by my love for Big Cat to think this team is going to be good in 2016. Pound the under. I love the under. 6 or 7 wins sounds right on the dot for the monsters of the midway.
Atlanta Falcons: O/U 7.5 wins. (UNDER -110). What did the Falcons start out last year like 5-0? Then they finished 8-8. 3-8 to end the season. They stink. Matt Ryan is AWFUL. I lost a lot of money last season believing in him but he is ass, I swear he throws a pick in the red zone at least once a week. LOVE the under. 5-11 finish in hotlanta.
New York Jets: O/U 8 wins. (UNDER -130) Fuck the Jets. Last year was a fluke, this off season has been all about whether or not Fitzy will come back. Ivory is gone, Revis isn't the same, who is their QB? I fucking hate the Jets, they are a nothing franchise, I pity their fans. LOVE the under. 6-10 city.
New York Giants: O/U 8 wins. (UNDER +130) Everybody loves ODJ but this team is flawed everywhere else. Eli is getting old. No more Tom Coughlin. Give me the under. They could push but I'd be shocked if this team won over 8 games.
Buffalo Bills: O/U 8 wins. (OVER -110) Think they just go over at 9-7. Wouldn't touch this though, way more value in the under IMO but I could see Bills Mafia finding a way to finish a hair over .500. Under is a better play though. I'm stupid for saying over. Push is very likely too. I could see all 3 New York teams pushing. Wouldn't that be some shit. Vegas is Vegas for a reason, always remember that.
Oakland Raiders: O/U 8.5 wins. (OVER -110) Another bet I'll probably regret, I think this is the year the Raiders end their playoff drought. I could see a 10-6 finish in Oakland. I feel like a sucker saying over. If you're gonna bet these I'd stay away from this line.
Baltimore Ravens: O/U 8.5 wins. (UNDER -140) Flacco is coming off ACL surgery, this team is getting much, much older. Only way the over hits is 9-7. I'd be amazed if this team won 10+ especially being in the AFC North, a tough division. 6-8 wins feels about right here. P.S. I fucking hate this scumbag franchise.
Houston Texans: O/U 8.5 wins. (UNDER +105) I don't think Brock Osweiler is good. Can't believe the Texans threw him so much money. This team was exposed in the playoffs against the Chiefs as they got shut out at home 30-0. Osweiler is an improvement from Brian Hoyer but I think AFC South is gonna be tough this year. 7-8 wins in Houston this year as I think they disappoint expectations in 2016.
Denver Broncos: O/U 9 wins. (UNDER -110) Defending Super Bowl champs, still can't believe they won with their QB situation. Amazing defense but they lost a lot of key pieces this off season. I don't think Kubiak is a good coach. I hate this team, Von Miller single handedly won them a Super Bowl. I don't see Paxton Lynch being a good pro. Give me the Under.
Minnesota Vikings: O/U 9.5 wins. (UNDER +100) I think this team could they just go over at 10-6 but I like the even money of under value a lot more than over at -130. This IMO is one of the toughest picks b/c 9-7 sounds perfect for this team. I really like Teddy Bridgwater a lot, I think Zimmer is a good coach. Good young team. I just don't see them beating the Packers for the NFC North two years in a row. This is IMO one of the toughest bets on the entire card, I'd stay away completely.
Kansas City Chiefs: O/U 9.5 wins. (OVER -130) I love this team and the way it's built. I think they'll win the AFC West win 10 or 11 wins. It's a risky bet because they remind me a lot of the Vikings in the sense that I think they'll take a minor step back in 2016 and 9-7 sounds perfect for them, but KC is hot in sports right now. I hate the Royals but love the Chiefs, Andy Reid is awful in the playoffs but he'll get you there, I really like Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Travis Kielce, Maclin, Justin Houston, Hali, this team is loaded. I'm taking the over.
Indianapolis Colts: O/U 9.5 wins. (UNDER -140) Andrew Luck is coming back from injury, I just think the AFC South is gonna beat up on each other, I don't think the Colts roster is that good. Again 9-7 sounds perfect. Although 10-6, 11-5 wouldn't blow my mind. With the OVER paying +110 it's decent but not great value, I'd stay away from this completely.
Dallas Cowboys: O/U 9.5 wins. (OVER +100) Love that they have Zeke Elliot from OSU now, I think Romo bounces back and this team wins the NFC East at 11-5. Take the over. I'd say 6-10 confidence here.
Cincinnati Bengals: O/U 9.5 wins. (OVER -140) I was shocked this team won 12 games last year. They still have not won a playoff game under Marvin Lewis. They are very talented bunch, this one is tough. Gonna be a dogfight between them and the Steelers for the AFC North crown. I think Cincy just goes over with a 10-6 record. If you're looking for value stay away from this, the over at -140 is not worth it with this franchise.
Arizona Cardinals: O/U 9.5 wins. (OVER -160) At -160 the value isn't great but that's because it is extremely likely this team wins over 9 games. Last year the Cards went 13-3. Don't expect that this year but 11 wins seems plausible. I'd say 8-10 confidence this goes over. Can't believe it the o/u was put this low.
Seattle Seahawks: O/U 10.5 wins. (OVER -150) Last year Seattle battled a ton of injuries and went 10-6. Even with Marshawn Lynch I expect this team to win 11 or 12 games. Value isn't great at -150 for over 10.5 especially because 10-12 wins is right around where this team will finish. It's a tough call but I'll take the over but again this is a tough call. Under at +120 almost snakes me into wanting to take it.
Pittsburgh Steelers: O/U 10.5 wins. (UNDER -110) This all depends on the health of their roster. One of the most talented offenses in football but they have not been able to keep everybody on the field for the duration of a season and for the playoffs. I'm expecting the Big Ben, Antonio Brown or Bell will get hurt at some point. With both sides at -110 this is a true toss up. I'll take the under as I think they'll just miss the over and finish 10-6.
New England Patriots: O/U 10.5 wins. (OVER -150) Even if Brady is out the first 4 weeks I think they'll go 2-2 worst case scenario with Brady out. That means Brady has to go at least 9-3. Easy. This team has gone 12-4 in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. I expect the trend to continue. Since 2001 Patriots have won 11 games or more in 2001, 03, 04, 06, 07, 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15. They went 9-7 in 02, 10-6 in 05 and 10-6 in 09. Go with history folks, I LOVE the over here and I'm not just saying it because I'm a Patriots fan. This team will win at least 11 games that is a guarantee.
Green Bay Packers: O/U 10.5 wins. (OVER -165) Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL, Jordie Nelson will be back, this team will go at least 11-5. Don't like the value at -165, at this point in my life economically I don't think it is worth it to bet this for me, but if you got some serious cash and wanna bet $1650 to win $1000 that this team goes at least 11-5 be my guest.
Carolina Panthers: O/U 10.5 wins. (OVER -130) I think this team was the worst 15-1 team in NFL history. I was shocked they won that many games but they rolled until the Super Bowl. I expect them to take a step back because it's very hard to win that many games in two straight seasons but 11-5 to 13-3 range seems very possible with Kelvin Benjamin returning and this team being very hungry after an embarrassing Super Bowl performance. I like the over a lot.
Well that's what I think for the upcoming NFL season over/unders. That is today on May 19th, who knows what will happen before September with injuries and what have you but at this point this is what I would take. Here are my 5 best bets.
5. Eagles UNDER 7 wins
4. Giants UNDER 8 wins
3. Falcons UNDER 7.5 wins
2. Patriots OVER 10.5 wins
1. Cardinals OVER 9.5 wins