Law of Large Numbers Strikes Again

Well, this cute little stat was fun while it lasted. 

This season, teams are 21-28 (.429) when playing on short rest (2nd-lowest win pct since 2000)

Only in 2014 (.420) did teams have a lower win pct

Since 2009, the @Patriots are 9-0 in games played on just 3 days rest and average 32.1 PPG and have a turnover differential of +16

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 10, 2020

The Patriots got absolutely dominated tonight which sorta makes sense given how Bill dressed for the evening.

pic.twitter.com/XtKlRC7sBb

— Doz #hiredozo (@DozonLife) December 11, 2020

I find it very fitting and almost poetic that a franchise who famously lost after 18 straight wins saw a winning streak regarding playing football games with half the ​regular rest time end at nine straight wins.

Not only did the Pats short rest winning streak come to an end, but so did their six game winning streak against the Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams franchise dating back to Super Bowl XXXVI.

There's a simple explanation for this defeat and it's not the uniforms; it's law of large numbers!

Law of large numbers in probability and statistics states that as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population. 

I've been debating whether or not to get a stathead subscription, but I'm leaning towards it. I wish I did right now to give more accurate data, but the stats in that tweet paint a picture of teams playing on short rest performing poorly (even though I feel like the vast majority of time both teams in these matchups are on short rest so it sort of cancels itself out) but the Patriots had won nine straight. I suppose the turnaround time was going to catch up with them eventually.

It's like the stats at a roulette wheel. They really have nothing to do with the outcome of the next spin, but you can use those stats to go with or against probability to make a decision. If it's been black nine spins in a row you can bet your sweet ass I'm betting red, but when it comes to the Pats, like I referenced in my last post; I'm going down with the ship. 

There's still a chance the Patriots can finish 9-7 which would tie Bill Belichick with Tom Landry with the most consecutive winning seasons of all time, but the loss means their playoff hopes are now all but gone. Honestly that may not be the worst thing.  Let's call a spade a spade; this is not a Super Bowl caliber roster.

Last time the Patriots lost 7 or more games in a season I was in 5th grade. I turn 29 next week. Greatest run of sustained success in NFL history and will never be topped.

— Doz #hiredozo (@DozonLife) December 11, 2020

Maaaaaybe, the uniforms had something do with that streak after all. I sure do miss them.