It's Super Bowl Sunday, one of the most bittersweet days of the year. Bitter because it's the end of football season; the 2021 season essentially dies tonight (speaking of dying, it's also the final broadcast of my favorite duo, Cris Collinsworth and Al Michaels), but sweet because of the spectacle, storylines, half-time show, the game itself, and of course, gambling ("responsibly").
Last year I crushed props (I added Gronk 2 TDs and Gronk first TD scorer to my ticket after the blog posted) and had Bucs ML. With a red hot Super Bowl, I ended a 0-26 playoff bet cold streak. These playoffs, I've done alright for myself with Bengals and 49er MLs and some props, so hopefully, all that hard ̶w̶o̶r̶k̶ guessing doesn't go to waste today. Here's my board so far (subject to change up to kickoff, follow my Twitter @Dozonlife for any late picks). I've already locked in everything in this blog.
Coin Toss: Tails +100
Last year I bet Tails and lost, but since it never fails I love our chances tonight.
Bengals ML +160
I rode Bengals ML against the Titans and Chiefs, and I'm not stopping now. This is a heart over head pick because pretty much everything says the Rams win this game. I mean, how can you come back from a burn like this from Dick mother fucking Butkus?
Don't get me wrong; I don't feel great about this bet, and truth be told wouldn't hate to see the Rams win. For me, this is one of those no-lose Super Bowl matchups. I'm heavily invested in the Bengals, but the Rams have plenty of dudes I'd love to see win a ring (Whit, Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell, Aaron Donald, Sony, Eric Weddle [what an incredible story that'd be] and Vonny). I'd just much rather see the long-suffering Bengals' fans get to celebrate instead of a bunch of L.A. assholes who don't really give a fuck and can go to the beach 12 months a year. All Cincinnati has is an unfinished subway and skyline. They NEED this.
Back to what Butkus said, the Rams defensive front features two of the best to ever play their position with Von Miller and Aaron Donald. I know the Bengals' offensive line played much better against the Chiefs, but they still gave up NINE sacks to the Titans.
That matchup terrifies me. I wish I could bet on Super Bowl MVP on my app because Aaron Donald could end up with four + sacks.
The Rams are playing at home, which might not mean a ton fan-wise at the Super Bowl, especially with a fake fanbase in L.A., but it's still a massive advantage for the Rams. They didn't have to travel, saw their families, and slept in their beds all week. You could argue this is also a disadvantage for the Rams since they've got the added pressure of potentially ruining their home for the rest of their Ram career. Imagine losing the Super Bowl at home then having to play their 8-9 times a year?
If I get the opportunity, you know my move.
Plus, we know I'm a narrative guy. It's Cris and Al's final broadcast together. Cris played for the Bengals, and Al has called some of the greatest upsets and comebacks of all time. It was always the Bengals.
Cincinnati to win by 7-12 points +750
Fuck it. WHO DEY!
Bengals First Drive Result: Field Goal attempt +430; Rams First Drive Result: Turnover +575
I'm Ja'Marr Chasing big payouts. I was gonna bet Bengals FG first score of the game, but these odds are basically the same and take out the possibility of the Rams scoring first to ruin the bet. I like Stafford, but playing at home in his first Super Bowl, I could see him air mailing one or karma leveling the playing field from the dude on the 49ers dropping a can of corn.
First Touchdown Scorer: TJ Uzomah +2000, Odell Beckham Jr. +650
I like a little action on both sides and have a weird hunch C.J. scores first (he did in the Raiders game) even though he's banged TF up. I'd imagine he's gonna be playing limited snaps, and red zone opportunities fall into that category. I love Odell, and those odds are solid, so I peppered him too.
Both teams to make a 35+ yard Field Goal: +110
I know teams have been going for it at an unprecedented clip this year, but with 1.5 solid kickers in this game and a 35+ yarder meaning, you stalled at the 18-yard line or further, I think both coaches are gonna be a tad more conservative and take the points instead of going for it on a 4th and 4.
Cooper Kupp OVER 0.5 Rushing Yards: +250
I drafted Cooper Kupp in the 4th round this year, and he single-handedly carried DK and the Diva Kupps to the final 4 in my fantasy league. While he was busy winning the WR triple crown (first since Steve Smith in 2005), Cooper also had five carries this year (including the playoffs). Sure, two went for negative yardage, but in the Super Bowl, I expect Sean McVay to have some tricks up his sleeve. Plus, Cooper had a carry for negative yards in the NFC Championship Game, so I'm sorta just banking on them giving him another carry tonight.
That's it for now; again, follow @dozonlife for any potential late additions to my ticket. Last year I added two Gronk props that cashed out, but I gotta leave a few bullets in the chamber to potentially double down on Bengals ML or hedge with Rams if given the opportunity. It sucks that everybody is on the Bengals because that means the Rams will probably win by 17+, but I'm a hashtag good guy and rooting for my friend Sean's happiness/Bengals. WHO DEY (please wager responsibly)!!!!