I've been retired from gambling for over half the season. It sucks but it's for the best, I've been trying to save my cash so I can start being a real boy. Definitely not retired for good. But currently retired. That could change come Sunday. But as I type this on February 3rd 2017, I am retired.
Despite being retired and never cashing out ahead I am a good gambler. I don't care what anybody says I know enough about sports to be a decent gambler. I turned 100 bucks into $3500 last year. Did I see a cent of it? No, but I've had success building bank rolls before. I know what I'm talking about. In the Super Bowl you can bet on basically anything. It's beautiful, there are hundreds of way to make money in this game. Sure you could be boring and bet the spread but with props you could wager on something like what will be higher "Tom Brady Rushing yards or Donald Trump interview with Bill O'Reilly in minutes?". The entire list of official Super Bowl Prop Bets is up on oddsharks.com www.oddsshark.com/super-bowl/props. Check it out, but it's rather lengthy so being the stand up guy I am I am going to give you some of the bets I think are the best for this game. Could be on value, what I find funny, or bets that are actually pretty smart choices to make. Do whatever you want, if you lose money don't blame me I don't have a gun to your head, but if you win it'd be good karma to send a little my way. Was my beak. Let's talk a look.
Oh before I do being, if you don't understand gambling odds they're all based off $100. When a number is + that means it's more improbable to happen. So in a normal game if a teams money line is +1000 it means if you bet $100 you'd win $1000 should they win, but that would have to be a very big upset to happen. But for props anything is possible and with small bets, throwing $20 on something that's +500 or something could be a nice little payday. When a number is - that means it's more probable to happen and this is where huge bets on closer to "sure things" happens. Like when the Patriots played the Browns this year they were huge favorites. I don't remember the odds but lets say the Patriots money line was -1000. That means you'd need to wager 1000 to profit $100. Got it? Good. Let's get started.
One of the most popular prop bets is on the outcome of the coin toss. In 50 Super Bowls it's 26 heads 24 tails. So over 50 tries the laws of probability are playing out. I'm a tails never fails guy til the death of me so if I was betting on that I'm obviously going tails. This is basically like the red or black at the roulette wheel of prop bets except it's actually better odds because of no 0/00 outcome to put the odds in the houses favor. Where most props have a cap this is a spot where gamblers will try to make big money on a 50/50 shot. Official DOL Bet: TAILS -105
Length of National Anthem:
Each side pays -120
Luke Bryan is the Anthem singer for this year's Super Bowl. Not only can you bet on the length of his National Anthem but you can also bet on whether or not he'll be wearing jeans (Jeans -200, any other pants +150) or if he'll have on a hat before he begins (yes/no -120). I think this is one of the bigger degenerate bets in the Super Bowl. According the Oddshark the average length of the anthem over the last 11 Super Bowls is 1:58. I would not touch this. But what I do love about some of these props is how they can easily be fixed. Like Luke Bryan could not wear blue jeans and bet against it and make a killing. I don't know how that hasn't happened yet but if I was in his shoes I would. I'm going against the grain here and let it be known even if I were to come out of retirement for the game I'd never in a million years bet on the anthem but I'll take the over. Official DOL Bet: Over 2:15 -120.
Will Luke Bryan Forget or Omit a Word From the National Anthem:
I love the value of yes here. It's obviously a long shot but the National Anthem is tough song, I'm sure he's practiced a ton and everything but you cannot replicate the pressure of doing it live. I don't expect this to happen but at +400 to forgive a single word the value is too good to pass up. Again if I'm Luke Bryan I'm not wearing a hat, wearing black pants and leaving a word out of the Anthem. Have yourself a nice little extra payday. Official DOL Bet: Yes +400
HALFTIME SHOW - WHICH SONG WILL LADY GAGA SING FIRST?
Born This Way +225
Bad Romance +250
Edge of Glory +600
Poker Face +1000
Just Dance +1000
Any Other Song +110
Yet another bet that someone with some insider information can make a killing on. I'm a Lady Gaga guy and need to get in touch with her people, Poker Face is a classic and what really started it all for her she should sing it and help us degenerates make a killing on the longshot. This bet is where value is key all of those songs give a pretty good RTI. However I think Gaga is going to with something from her latest album. This feels like sucker bet to me. With the value though $10 on Just Dance or Poker Face is totally worth it. Of all the songs listed I think Born This Way is the least likely to be played first. Pick whatever you want here. Smart bet is the field but I'm not a smart bet guy. Lock me in with Poker Face I'm a sucker. Official DOL Bet: Poker Face +1000
First Touchdown Scorer:
Julio Jones (ATL) +750
Devonta Freeman (ATL) +800
Julian Edelman (NE) +800
LeGarrette Blount (NE) +800
Tevin Coleman (ATL) +1200
Chris Hogan (NE) +1200
Dion Lewis (NE) +1200
Martellus Bennett (NE) +1200
Mohamed Sanu (ATL) +1400
Taylor Gabriel (ATL) +1600
James White (NE) +1800
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) +1800
Austin Hooper (ATL) +2200
Danny Amendola (NE) +2200
Tom Brady (NE) +2500
Matt Ryan (ATL) +2800
Justin Hardy (ATL) +3300
Levine Toilolo (ATL) +3300
Eric Weems (ATL) +6600
Joshua Perkins (ATL) +6600
Any Other Touchdown Scorer +550
The odds here make first touchdown one of the best prop bets of the entire Super Bowl. This is where bettors can make some serious money. What's great here is usually books will let you bet on multiple guys. If you're a serious bettor or someone with some serious extra cash laying around this is a bet where you can have a crazy profit. Julio Jones at +750 to me is a must bet. With someone of his caliber being at +750 you have to throw some coin there. However with each team there are some fantastic long shots that pay out very well. IMO these are the smartest bets given the potential RTI.
James White +1800 James White has filled in for the Kevin Faulk/Danny Woodhead/Shane Vereen role nicely for the Pats this season. He doesn't play a ton of downs for the Patriots, but he's had pretty good numbers for 3rd down back this year. 60 grabs for 551 yards and 5 touchdowns. I could totally see him scoring on a 3rd down situation early in the game. Although Dion Lewis has stolen time from White since he returned the Patriots have shown that they'll switch up their entire game plans on a weekly basis. I wouldn't be shocked if James White had a big role in this game for the Pats. Brady already has found him once in the playoffs so you know he trusts him.
Danny Amendola: +2200 I just love DA. At +2200 a $10 bet wins $220. So worth it. He's scored 4 touchdowns this year in a diminished role so even as the Pats 4th receiver you never know.
Mohammed Sanu: +1400 Sanu is the Falcons 2nd reciever at those odds especially if the Pats are trying to shut down Julio early I could see a situation where Matt Ryan finds Sanu for 6 early in the game.
Austin Hooper: +2200 The rookie TE only scored 3 touchdowns all year but he's technically their starting TE. Bill Belichick loves to make lesser guys beat you. In the Super Bowl I could see their star weapons like Jones and Freeman being held in check early so a no name like Hooper to score first actually isn't as crazy as a bet as you'd think.
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER
Julio Jones (ATL) -150
LeGarrette Blount (NE) -150
Devonta Freeman (ATL) -125
Julian Edelman (NE) -125
Tevin Coleman (ATL) +130
Martellus Bennett (NE) +150
Mohamed Sanu (ATL) +160
Taylor Gabriel (ATL) +175
Chris Hogan (NE) +175
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) +175
Danny Amendola (NE) +300
James White (NE) +300
Austin Hooper (ATL) +325
Justin Hardy (ATL) +450
Matt Ryan (ATL) +550
Levine Toilolo (ATL) +600
Devonta Freeman seems like a lock. But at -150 you'd have to risk more than you'd get paid out so if you wanna bet that go for it. But if you're looking to make a bet in the plus money I love Malcolm Mitchell +175. Austin Hooper +325.
THE FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME - EXACT OUTCOME
Patriots Touchdown +175
Patriots Field Goal +325
Patriots Safety +3300
Falcons Touchdown +190
Falcons Field Goal +375
Falcons Safety +3300
I love Falcons Field Goal here. I have a feeling they're gonna get the ball first. Given the value +375 and how both teams play: Falcons have the best offense statically in the NFL and Patriots give up yards but tighten up in the redzone I could see the Falcons coming out hot and getting points on their first series. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Falcons Field Goal +375
ODDS TO WIN MVP
Tom Brady (NE) +160
Matt Ryan (ATL) +275
Julio Jones (ATL) +750
Julian Edelman (NE) +1200
LeGarrette Blount (NE) +2000
Dion Lewis (NE) +2500
Devonta Freeman (ATL) +2500
Chris Hogan (NE) +2500
Tevin Coleman (ATL) +3300
Vic Beasley (ATL) +3300
Mohamed Sanu (ATL) +4000
Logan Ryan (NE) +5000
Martellus Bennett (NE) +5000
Austin Hooper (ATL) +6600
Matt Bryant (ATL) +6600
Taylor Gabriel (ATL) +6600
Stephen Gostkowski (NE) +6600
James White (NE) +6600
Malcom Butler (NE) +6600
Devin McCourty (NE) +7500
Deion Jones (ATL) +10000
Dwight Freeney (ATL) +10000
Eric Weems (ATL) +10000
Keanu Neal (ATL) +10000
Danny Amendola (NE) +10000
Dont'a Hightower (NE) +10000
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) +10000
Patrick Chung (NE) +10000
Rob Ninkovich (NE) +10000
Levine Toilolo (ATL) +15000
Chris Long (NE) +15000
With a list that long I'm surprised they even needed to list the field. Who's left the punters and offensive linemen?
Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are the obvious choices as QBs for each team. For the Falcons to win I think it has to be Matt Ryan because their defense is ass, their best chance is to out shoot out the Pats. I don't see them winning a defensive struggle.
If you are going for likely outcomes the two QBs are the safe bets but if you're trying to make some crazy cash on prop bets these are the bets that make the most sense to me:
LeGarrette Blount (NE) +2000 You can eliminate basically any Patriots receiver from the list. If they have a great day it's going to be because of Tom Brady. The odds of having a Deion Branch repeat like performance from Super Bowl XXXIX are slim so I would not waste money on a Patriots offensive player who isn't Tom Brady or a running back. LaGarrette Blount has been very solid this season. He only averages 3.9 yards per carry which has caused people to say he's not elite, just the product of goal line carries. I agree. I like LG a lot but he just had a very nice statistical season. He's not a top 5 running back in the NFL. However in this Super Bowl he has a great chance at MVP. If LaGarrette can pound the Falcons defense all day and break one late I think he has a great chance. Especially with how much the Patriots have relied on him in goal line situations. He was the only Patriots running back to score a rushing touchdown all regular season. I think at +2000 LeGarrette has excellent value. To me if the Patriots win the Super Bowl and offensive player not named Tom Brady is MVP LeGarrette Blount is the most likely choice.
Mohamed Sanu: +4000 Mohamed Sanu has had a solid season for the Atlanta Falcons. He played 2nd fiddle to Julio Jones but Sanu has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, included both of the Falcons playoff wins. Given his ability to throw the ball, he's 5-5 with 2 touchdowns in his career passing I think his big play and gadget play ability, especially in the Super Bowl makes him a great candidate for a surprise MVP. Again we know Bill Belichick is great at taking team's top weapons away so that makes me think Sanu is poised for a big day.
WILL BOTH TEAMS COMBINED SCORE 76 OR MORE POINTS TO BREAK THE SUPER BOWL RECORD?
If you don't have a dog in the fight and love points this bet is for you!
WILL ANY PLAYER OTHER THAN BRADY OR RYAN ATTEMPT A PASS?
LOVE yes here. I think the Falcons are going to have some sort of trick play when Sanu throws the ball. They're gonna need to do something crazy to surprise this Patriots defense. OFFICIAL DOL Bet: YES +250
WILL THE GAME GO TO OVERTIME?
No Super Bowl has ever gone to overtime. If you want to bet $1500 to win $100 that history will repeat itself a 51st time be my guest.
TOTAL PASSING YARDS - TOM BRADY (NE)
Over 305½ (-125)o
Under 305½ (-105)u
The Falcons defense is not good. They may somehow pull off the upset but I don't think there's a way Brady throws for under 306 yards unless he gets hurt. OFFICIAL DOL Bet: Over 305.5 -125
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS - TOM BRADY (NE)
Over 2½ (-125)o
Under 2½ (-105)u
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS - MATT RYAN (ATL)
Over 5½ (-125)o
Under 5½ (-105)u
Kneel downs can fuck this stat up for everybody but I love both overs. In big games QBs will do whatever it takes to win. Patriot fans have seen Brady scramble his fair share in playoff games. It there is a running lane he'll take it. Matt Ryan had a 14 yard rushing TD in the NFC Championship game. I think both QB's will surpass the rushing totals. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER for both
TOTAL COMPLETIONS - TOM BRADY (NE)
Over 25½ (-125)o
Under 25½ (-105)u
In his 6 Super Bowls Tom Brady has had over 25 completions 4 times. They love the short intermediate passes in New England. Like Lady Gaga I love, love, love I want your love and I love the over here. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 25.5 Completions -125
TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES - MATT RYAN (ATL)
Over 2½ (-155)o
Under 2½ (+125)u
For plus money I love the under. I think the Pats defense can hold Matty Ice to 2 TDs. OFFICIAL DOL BET: UNDER 2.5 +125
TOTAL TACKLES AND ASSISTS - DEVIN MCCOURTY (NE)
Over 5½ (-115)o
Under 5½ (-115)u
Given the way the Patriots play defense the over is a lock. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 5.5 tackles -115
WHO WILL CATCH A PASS 1ST? - JULIO JONES (ATL) VS JULIAN EDLEMAN (NE)
Julio Jones (ATL) -115
Julian Edelman (NE) -115
Basically betting on what team will get the ball first. My gut is telling me Julio here. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Julio Jones -115
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS - JULIO JONES (ATL)
Over 95½ (-115)o
Under 95½ (-115)u
I've been telling myself all week that the Pats will find a way to slow down Julio Jones. Deep down Idk if I believe what I've been telling myself. Give me the over. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 95.5 Yards -115
TOTAL RECEPTIONS - LEGARRETTE BLOUNT (NE)
Over ½ (+125)o
Under ½ (-155)u
LG is not really a threat in the passing game. But it's only one catch for plus money. Give yourself something weird to root for. Take the over. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Over 1/2 reception +125
LONGEST RECEPTION - CHRIS HOGAN (NE)
Over 22½ (-115)o
Under 22½ (-115)u
Chris Hogan led the NFL in yards per reception this year. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 22.5 yards -115
WILL DEVIN MCCOURTY (NE) INTERCEPT A PASS?
The Pats are going to probably using McCourty a lot to help over the top with Julio Jones. I'm not too confident in this bet but given the odds and how much he may helping the passing game it's worth a shot. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Yes +350
WILL A ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY BE CALLED IN THE GAME?
Yes (Roughing the Passer) +120
No (Roughing the Passer) -150
Have you watched football in the last 5 years? Pound yes. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Yes +120
WHAT WILL BE THE 1ST ENFORCED PENALTY IN THE GAME?
False Start +260
Offside or Encroachment or Neutral Zone Infraction +400
Pass Interference +550
Any Personal Foul or Unsportsmanlike Conduct +900
Delay of Game +600
Any Other Penalty +600
No Penalty in the game +3300
This is literally a guessing game. I'll take holding since it doesn't specify offensive or defensive, give myself more opportunity. DOL OFFICIAL BET: Holding +250
Now it's time for the real fun stuff
IF THE PATRIOTS WIN, WILL BRADY, BELICHICK OR KRAFT BE SEEN SHAKING ROGER GOODELL'S HAND ON TV?
I want to say NO but the Patriots are too classy of an organization to stiff the commissioner. But you know what since I'm not really doing these bets (wink, wink) I'm gonna have some balls and stick with it. Fuck you Goodell. OFFICIAL DOL BET: NO +110
WHO WILL DONALD TRUMP PICK TO WIN THE GAME?
Easiest pick of all time. Patriots. Put your house on that.
HOW MANY TIMES WILL TRUMP BE SAID DURING THE LIVE BROADCAST?
Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120
Again easy AF. He will be brought up at least once, and if they say his name once they'll say it twice. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 1.5 -120
WILL ANY PLAYER ON THE FALCONS OR PATRIOTS ROSTER BE SEEN KNEELING DURING THE NATIONAL ANTHEM ON TV DURING LIVE BROADCAST?
Is this still a thing? If I were to bet I'd go Yes just because I feel like some nobody will do it just to get talked about afterwards. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Yes +250
WHAT WILL BE HIGHER ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY?
Tom Brady Rushing Yards +170
Donald Trump's Interview with Bill O'Reilly in minutes -250
I'm going all in on Crazy Legs Brady running wild Sunday. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Tom Brady Rushing Yards +170
WILL THE WORD "LACROSSE" BE SAID ON TV DURING LIVE BROADCAST?
Joe Buck will not be able to mention Chris Hogan without saying that he used to be a lax bro. Snipe Ducks. Yes may be my lock of the night. OFFICIAL DOL BET: YES -250
WILL "HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM" BE SAID ON TV DURING LIVE BROADCAST?
Joe Buck again is corny AF, he won't be able to contain himself. This will be said. Pound YES. OFFICIAL DOL BET: Yes +250
HOW MANY TIMES WILL "DEFLATE" OR "DEFLATEGATE" BE SAID ON TV DURING LIVE BROADCAST?
Over 1.5 -120
Under 1.5 -120
Come on man. OFFICIAL DOL BET: OVER 1.5 -120
Believe it or not I left off hundreds of bets. I could go all day but I need to take a shower and go to work. Good luck with your bets come Sunday.