Official DOL Thursday Night Football Bets

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​Thank you to the tens of thousands who turned into #DozVsTheDozen VI and already heard my official picks for TNF, but since I'm a man of the people, I'm going to do those who didn't tune in a favor and give them not one, but two winners for a lackluster TNF match up.


Usually, I'm a big + money only bet guy, but I'm taking OVER 43 -110. Anytime an O/U is under 44, I'm gonna take the over and hope for the best, but I actually have some stats to back this up.

• I know the sample size is nearly as small as it can possibly be, but through two games, the Houston Texans are 8th in the NFL in scoring with 58 points (29.0 PPG) and 20th in points allowed (26.0 PPG), giving up 21 and 31 against the Jaguars and Browns respectively.
• Carolina's defense is currently 1st in the NFL in yards and points allowed (10.5 PPG), but they faced the Jets, who had a rookie QB making his first start, and the Saints in a huge letdown spot where everybody was getting ready to give Jameis the MVP. I think we see some regression tonight. Even though this contradicts my earlier point in this point, with a rookie QB Davis Mills (which sounds like a field trip you take in 5th grade) making his first start, I'm going with the ignorance is bliss; this offense isn't as bad as people think, Texans score at least 17 to sort of do their part.
• Carolina's offense is averaging 22.5 points a game. If they can stay on schedule, that's already over half of what we need. I think this could be the CMC breakout game. ​

Sam Darnold OVER 0.5 INT +100

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• Through two games, Sam Darnold has thrown one interception, and it was to a D-lineman. While Darnold has looked alright in Carolina, in 40 career starts, he's thrown 40 career INTs. Anytime you can get + money for a below-average QB to throw a pick, it's decent value IMO. It was +110 when I first saw it before the Dozen; admittedly I wish I got in then.​

Both bets are just a light TNF peppering at a half unit each. ALWAYS wager responsibly.