The NFL is officially back tonight! If you're reading this, congratulations on surviving another off-season. Now it's time to dedicate half of your weekend and two weeknights (depending on if you've got an Amazon Prime sub or not) to the greatest sport in the world.
I'm still getting used to using a 17-game schedule when projecting a team's record, so I appreciate the league returning on 9-8, which is a potential record under the new(ish) format. That record got the Philadelphia Eagles the 7 seed last year. I'm such a football guy that whenever I'd see a 14' 2" clearance sign on an overpass, I wouldn't think about whether or not my vehicle could fit under (obviously it would, I don't drive a semi), but the 14-2 record that four New England Patriot teams achieved. Of course, by the time we're all used to saying, "I think we can go 10-7 this year," the league will adopt an 18-game season, but there's nothing wrong with more football. I'm just so used to 16-game records like 11-5, 8-8, etc. Speaking of more football, if you wanna go down memory lane and see some past DOL NFL preview/prediction blogs from the seven calendar years of DOL before HB diving into the season, I've got you like covered (unlike DeShaun Watson). 2016: I still can't believe the Cardinals were such a disappointment. 2017---I guess I didn't do an NFL preview blog this year. Must've been too busy getting verbally abused by 8th graders in Nashville. 2018: I had the Chargers beating the Pats in the AFC Championship lololol. 2019: I called Christian McCaffrey going 1000-1000 NBD. 2020: I was right about Russell being MVP for like 7 weeks. 2021: Totally nailed Joe Judge getting fired, unfortunately, he's my problem now.
This season, I'm switching things up and giving a floor and ceiling for every team in addition to standings, playoff, Super Bowl, and major award picks. If you're unfamiliar with that terminology, essentially, the floor is the worst record these teams could go assuming there are no significant injuries. Like, the Bills' season is over if Josh Allen tears his ACL tonight. But it's no fun to say "0-17" for every team, so we're working under the assumption that there are no catastrophic injuries to key personnel. Conversely, saying "17-0" for every team is idiotic, so with ceiling, this is the best I think a team could finish given their current state. They might not align with how I project the standings because a team like the Chargers could have a higher ceiling than the Chiefs, but it'll be fine. I believe in you. If you're still a little lost, I'm sure you'll catch on quickly like Ja'Marr Chase.
Before we get into all 32 teams, I'm gonna fire off some hot takes for the season. Here's what I had last year with how they turned out in bolded parentheses. 2021: -Urban Meyer will fail in Jacksonville. He makes it through year one, but there will be no year three. (He did fail, but I was too kind assuming he'd survive the season) -Mac Jones throws 30 touchdowns. (24 including the playoffs AND he "made the Pro Bowl") -The Texans will be lucky to win multiple games. (accurate, they were lucky to) -Dan Campbell doesn't make it to 2022. (Wrong and I'm totally fine with that; I like Dan Campbell, but I haven't watched a second of Hard Knocks this year) -Daniel Jones loses his starting job; Joe Judge gets fired. (Half right) -Derek Carr has a great fantasy season, but the Raiders miss the playoffs again. (Half right) -Dolphins take a step back. (technically 9-8 is a step back from 10-7 and the coach got fired, so I'd say spot on Dozie) -Steelers miss the playoffs and Big Ben retires after the season. (If the Carson Wentz Colts didn't lose to the Jaguars this would be spot on) -Falcons go 4-13. (7-10) -Taysom Hill ends up making at least two starts at QB. (The now TE was 4-1 as a starter last year) -Carson Wentz is a disaster in Indy. (NAILED IT) -Cliff Kingsbury doesn't make it to week 12. (wrong, but the Cardinals did fall tf off) -Rob Gronkowski scores double-digit touchdowns for the first time since 2015. (He would've if he didn't get hurt)
2022 Hot Takes:
-Jacksonville Jaguars are a competitive 5-8 win team under Doug Pederson -Tony Pollard ends up with more touches than Zeke Elliott -AJ Dillon scores double-digit touchdowns to make up for the loss of Davante Adams -Davis Mills has a top 15 QB season despite the Texans being terrible again -Cardinals missed the playoffs, this is the year pretty boy Cliff gets fired -Chargers lose at least one game they should've won because they refuse to sub 30-year field goals -Brady finally starts to show signs of his advanced age -Gronk comes back to the Bucs -Jimmy G gets traded -Malik Willis starts at least 3 games for the Titans -Minnesota Vikings end up with the top offense in the NFL -Tyreek Hill has a sub-1000 yard season in Miami -Someone scores 7 points the Iowa way (field goal and two safeties) -Cooper Kupp only has 125 receptions -Jonnu Smith scores at least 4 touchdowns
League Wide Predictions
AFC East:
1. Buffalo Bills
Floor: 10-7
On paper, the Buffalo Bills are one of, if not the best team in the NFL. Josh Allen is a sexy MVP pick this season and is only getting better, but the Bills haven't had a real running game since Shady McCoy. Sure the league is changing, but sometimes you gotta be able to run the ball in certain spots. We saw the importance of that in their MNF loss to the Pats, but then they literally didn't punt in either of their following two match-ups, so I could be totally off. I think losing Brian Daboll is pretty significant. I wouldn't be shocked to see a slow start with a new OC, especially when they're starting the season against the defending champs on the road. Let's not forget that this team inexplicably lost to the dumpster fire Jaguars last year and has had a rocky off-season with the whole you drafted an "alleged" gang-rapist thing.
Ceiling: 15-2
Like I just said, the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL and they added Von Miller. It's Super Bowl or bust in Western New York. We know I'm not a jinx guy, but if you're a Bills fan, you gotta hate seeing this.
Maybe James Cook ends up solving their running back problem? Maybe it won't matter with Josh Allen throwing 56 touchdowns? All I know is this team got a lot better this offseason and l've got 31 more these, and I'm trying to be concise for your sake cause I know how much reading sucks (right Lea?). The Bills are gonna be a problem all year as long as Josh Allen is behind center (speaking of, their O-line isn't great).
2. New England Patriots
Floor: 6-11
I am hashtag worried about my beloved New England Patriots. I still don't get why they wasted a first-rounder on a D-6 offensive lineman or shelled out so much money on mid-free agents in 2021 that there was no money left for JC Jackson, but I am expecting a regression this year. I hope I'm wrong, but I think in like four years, we could look back at the Patriots lack of an OC for Mac Jone's 2nd season as a reason why he's out of the league or on another team. I'm high on Mac but am terrified of the cluster fuck that is Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. Plus, the AFC is loaded, and their schedule isn't easy. This is a much better than six-win roster, but that's my floor.
Ceiling: 11-6
Maybe everybody is overreacting about the OC situation and Mac shines in year 2? With one of the best running back tandems in the league and a solid defense the Patriots could dictate flow and shorten games with t.o.p. (time of possession) football. They still have Belichick (even though at times I worry he's too set in his old ways. Sure he's adapted time and time before, but the dude is 70 years old). Luckily the red jerseys are back this year. They're legitimately 500x better than their current Wal-Mart specials and good for at least an extra win.
3. Miami Dolphins
Floor: 6-11
I don't believe in Tua. I think it's crazy they sacked Flores. Sure McDaniel seems like a cool, innovative guy, but some organizations are simply dumpster fires. The Miami Dolphins are one of those organizations. Two playoff appearances since realignment in 2002 ('08, '16). Their DeSantisland neighbor Jaguars have three ('05, '07, '17). Can Mike McDaniel really be a leader of men?
Ceiling: 10-7
I'm wrong about Tua, and McDaniel shows why they were right to wrongfully fire Brian Flores after getting a 1-7 team to 9-8. It's 1 am, and we're going quicker with irrelevant franchises.
4. New York Jets
Floor: 3-14, Ceiling: 6-11
Their "franchise QB" is gonna miss some serious time and like I said, we're getting quicker with irrelevant franchises. The Jets have won the AFC East TWICE since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. I will be rooting for Flacco vs. the Ravens week one (unless I end up taking the Ravens in TML) but it feels like another rebuilding year in New York via New Jersey.
AFC North
1. Baltimore Ravens
Floor: 8-9, Ceiling: 12-5
It pains me to give this franchise credit, but the Ravens are one of the top organizations in football. Last year they were decimated by injuries and still ended up at a respectable 8-9. They were 8-3 before the wheels fell off and they dropped six straight (5 of which were by less than 3 points). With a healthy Lamar and a target on the Bengals backs, I think the Ravens reclaim the north in an ultra-competitive division.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 12-5
I like this Bengals team a lot. I rode their ML all playoffs. Hayden Hurst is a great replacement for Uzomah. They're a ton of fun and full of likable guys (Joe Mixon withstanding), but I'm a narrative guy and these are the Cincinnati Bengals. It wouldn't shock me to see them be a minor disappointment this year. I still think they'll be a solid, playoff caliber team, but last year they sort of came out of nowhere and this year as defending AFC champs they're gonna get everybody's best game. They did patch up the o-line a little bit which was probably their biggest weakness, but gun to my head I see them going 10-7, 11-6 and just missing out on the AFC North crown for a second year in a row. Sorry pops.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Floor: 6-11, Ceiling: 11-6
The Steelers are one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL. Last year with the corpse of Big Ben they snuck into the playoffs, but that's mainly because the Ravens, Chargers, and Colts all choked down the stretch. Still, you gotta give them their credit for getting there. Najee Harris is one of the better young backs in the league, and even with a questionable o-line, I expect him to build off a solid rookie year.
The defense is one of the best in the league, but what will they get from the QB position? Apparently, Mitch has looked good, and I'm rooting for him, but between him and lil hands Kenny it has to be an upgrade from the Big Ben statue behind center last year. It wouldn't shock me to see the Steelers have their first losing season since 2003, but I also think they could sneak into the playoffs again on the back of an elite defense. Don't be surprised if Pat Freiermuth catches 10+ touchdowns. I wish I had drafted him, but I took Kelce like a piece of shit.
4. Cleveland Browns
Floor: 4-13, Ceiling 8-9
For like a year and a half the Browns were cool to pull for after a 1-31 stretch, but they gave DeShaun Watson a fully-guaranteed deal after at the very least being a major creep to like 25 women. Fuck the Browns, I hope they go 0-17. Actually, I hope Jacoby Brissett plays at an MVP level and they're forced to bench him like fools because they gave a predator the fucking bag. To quickly take my hater shades off, the Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and I love Nick Chubb.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
Floor: 8-9, Ceiling: 13-4
I am higher than the woman protagonist of Tal Bachman's 1999 one-hit wonder smash "She's So High" on the Indy Colts in 2022.
Sure, I have future tickets on them to win the division and the Super Bowl because I'm a narrative guy, and the last two Super Bowl champs were loaded rosters that upgraded a shaky QB with a solid vet, but I genuinely love this roster. The Colts are loaded on defense with one of the best running backs in the game and a veteran QB in Matt Ryan, that still has plenty left in the tank and even more left to prove the haters. It goes without saying that I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl every season, but I'm a realist and just don't see it in 2022. I'd love to see Matty Ice get a ring after being a punchline since 28-3. He played great in that game and doesn't deserve all the blame he got (obviously, he deserves some). My biggest concern is that he didn't start fresh jersey number wise. Carson Wentz left too much stank on #2. Don't forget that Darius Leonard is now Shaquille Leonard. You shouldn't dead-name transpeople, but you definitely don't wanna dead name one of the baddest mother fuckers in the league. I think the Colts run away with the South, even though they should not be in that division from a geographic standpoint.
2. Tennessee Titans
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 10-7
I love Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel, but I just don't see the Titans returning the playoffs in 2022. The AFC is too loaded and Ryan Tannehill has shown that even if you change his jersey you can't get that Dolphins stink fully off him. He put up Bob Griese numbers during their 2019 (2020) playoff run and that is not a compliment. This team should've mopped the Bengals off the field last year and sure Tractorcito's injury slowed them down but without AJ Brown and an improved division, I think the Titans take a major step back this season. I wouldn't be shocked to see Malik Willis take the starting job by Thanksgiving.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Floor: 4-13, Ceiling: 9-8
I thought Trevor Lawrence would struggle as a rookie, but not to the extent he did last year. I'll cut him some slack from the mess this organization was under Urban Meyer, but from a talent standpoint, this roster didn't really improve unless you count getting Travis Etienne back. It's 1:52 am, and nobody is reading this blog for my Jaguar takes, but Doug Pederson brings some stability to a franchise that desperately needs some. I think the Jags win six games.
4. Houston Texans
Floor: 3-14, Ceiling: 5-12
If nobody's coming here for Jags takes, you can best believe they don't wanna hear about the lowly Houston Texans. Everybody is souping up Dameon Pierce, but if you're down 17-3 after 20 minutes, IDK how much you can count on him to get carries. I don't hate Davis Mills as a QB, but is he really the guy? I've already wasted enough finger power typing this much about a team that won't sniff six wins.
AFC West
1. Los Angeles Chargers
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 13-4
It's the Chargers time. Are they gonna take the next step or continue to be the most talented team to accomplish nothing? I love Herbert and think he could be MVP, but he does need to start winning games (although somethings are out of his control, like calling a time-out in OT to help set up the Raiders GW-FG). Top to bottom, this might be the most talented roster in the league, but it's also one of the most volatile. It wouldn't shock me to see the Chargers finish below .500 or hoist the Lombardi.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
Floor: 10-7, Ceiling: 13-4
The Mahomes to Hill connection was one of the best in NFL history, but in a weird way, I think his loss will benefit the Chiefs. You can't replace his production or speed, but spreading the ball around more might be what Mahomes needs at this point in his career instead of playing junkyard football with two targets. Andy Reid is still one of the best coaches in the NFL. I'm not sure what to expect on defense from this club, but with Mahomes, they're a lock to win 10 games and get into the dance.
3. Denver Broncos
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 12-5
I love Russell Wilson's game and how it translates to Denver. The Broncos will be one of the most entertaining offenses in football with two stud WRs and a more than solid backfield. Defensively they've got some dudes. Not sure what to think about the new coaching staff, but gun to my head, with an improved line based on what Russ dealt with in Seattle, I think the Broncos sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 11-6
The AFC West is the best division in football and its not even close. It wouldn't shock me at all (especially with the Adams addition) to see the Raiders back in the playoffs for the second year in a row, but this division is gonna beat the shit out of each other. With their shaky o-line, and Josh McDaniels running the show, I think the Raiders just miss the playoffs at 9-8.
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 13-4
They're a little injured, but this roster is fully loaded like Herbie. Mike McCarthy isn't a good coach in big games, but as long as Dak is healthy, this team is playoff caliber. They had a lot of turnover luck on defense last year, which is tough to replicate, so it wouldn't shock me to see the Eagles sneak past Dallas to win this division, but it's now 2:31 am, and we're spitballing. Cowboys are the first back-to-back NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Floor: 8-9, Ceiling: 12-5
It all comes down to Jalen Hurts. Can he make the throws he needs to make as an NFL quarterback? Because with this line and all the weapons (I love their WR core now that Reagor is gone), this is an offense built to score 27+ points per game. They had a great draft to fill some holes on defense. I expect the Eagles to secure a wild-card berth, at the very least.
3. Washington Commanders
Floor: 4-13, Ceiling: 9-8
New name, same shitty franchise. I'm sure Carson Wentz will fail miserably here, but maybe the defense returns to its 2020 glory to carry the Commies to 7 or 8 wins? I do love Riverboat Ron and HATE these fugly new unis. R-words needed to go, but Commanders is a bottom 5 team name in the big four major sports.
4. New York Giants
Floor: 3-14, Ceiling: 6-11
The Giants will be a disaster, but it won't be Daboll's fault (at least this year). Supposedly Saquon is looking good, but man, that pick will go down as one of the worst in NFL history. You could've had Josh Allen!
NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 12-5
The Vikings will end up with the highest-scoring offense in football. They're always solid on D. New coach, which is huge; it felt like Zimmer's act had worn thin. It's all about Cook staying healthy and Cousins avoiding the mistakes he seems to always make (he did throw just 7 picks last year). I wanna finish this by 3 am (it's now 3:41 as I edit), so I apologize for the lack of specifics. I don't like #4 for Dalvin Cook, though, 33 is a great RB number.
2. Green Bay Packers
Floor: 8-9, Ceiling: 13-4
They lost one of the best weapons in the NFL and replaced him with Sammy fucking Watkins. I wouldn't be shocked to see Odell end up in Green Bay. I love their backs and Tonyan coming back is huge. We're gonna see a much different offense this season, but that might be for the best. Take a little load off of Rodger's shoulders. I bet 49ers ML in the playoffs but still cannot believe this team lost to them. Look at the bright side Packer fans, the last time you won the Super Bowl, you were a Wild Card team.
3. Detroit Lions
Floor: 4-13, Ceiling: 9-8
You'd be a real piece of shit to root against the city of Detroit after what they've gone through the last like 60 years, and while I want to see Goff and Campbell do well, the deck is stacked against them. Swift is a great back, but I'll be honest, I couldn't name a single defensive player on this roster outside of Hutch and I'm sure as shit not looking any up right now.
4. Chicago Bears
Floor: 2-15, Ceiling: 6-11
I might not be PC to say but I don't trust this new coach off name alone. Just too silly of a name to succeed. Matt Eberflus has two season tenure written all over him. Justin Fields may be bright spot, but the Bears a mess and need a real owner. I feel for the fans, they deserve better.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 11-6
I love the Honey Badger addition on defense. Worried about Kamara, but this team went 9-8 last year and probably would've made the playoffs in Jameis didn't get hurt. I think the Bucs are a tad too old and lost a lot on the offensive line. Do I even know the name of their new coach without the aid of the internet? I'm not gonna answer that, but I've got a funny feeling the Saints reclaim the NFC South. Chris Olave is my offensive rookie of the year pick.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Floor: 8-9, Ceiling: 11-6
This team is only getting older and lost a lot of solid pieces (feel free to look that up to confirm). Brady is the GOAT, but I'm a tad worried the shaky o-line will be problematic at his advanced age. Still a playoff team, and dangerous if they get in, but it's gonna be an inconsistent year.
3. Carolina Panthers
Floor: 4-13, Ceiling: 10-7
The Panthers should be a fun team to watch, but we all know C-Mac will go down at some point. I wouldn't be shocked to see Matt Rhule fired if they're under .500 in November.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Floor: 2-15, Ceiling: 6-11
I'm glad to see Marcus Mariota get another opportunity, but to his determent, it's with one of the weakest rosters in all of football. Kyle Pitts will be entertaining, but the Falcons are in full tank mode.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams
Floor: 9-8, Ceiling: 13-4
The Rams are loaded with talent but lack depth; I love the Bobby Wagner signing to sure up the middle of their D, but I think they take a step back in 2022. There's no way Cooper Kupp replicates his monster year, no Odell, Whitworth retired. A guy like Sean McVay will never say it out loud, but I think winning it all takes a little of his fire. Rams will still be good, but I think they win like 10-11 games and have an early playoff exit.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Floor: 7-10, Ceiling: 12-5
Call me biased, but I'm a Jimmy G guy. I get why the niners moved on, he's just a tad below what you need from a Super Bowl contending team. He's missed some big throws, but the dude is a winner. I think losing his presence in the huddle will hurt, but this team is so talented that as long as Trey Lance is serviceable they should be in the mix. Gun to my head they just miss the playoffs with 9-10 wins.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Floor: 5-12, Ceiling: 10-6-1
No D-Hop for six games, Kyler is addicted to COD, fraud ass head coach, lost Chandler Jones, haven't had a 100 yard tight end since before the first World Trade Center attacks. The Cardinals will miss the playoffs in 2022.
4. Seattle Seahawks
Floor: 1-16, Ceiling: 6-11
I said the Falcons have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, but the Seahawks are giving them a run for their money outside of their two stud WRs and Jamal Adams. It doesn't matter if it's Geno Smith or Drew Lock; the Seahawks will be pushovers all year. I wouldn't be shocked to see Pete Carroll step down in a "mutual decision" after like a 2-7 start.
AFC Playoffs:
1. Buffalo Bills: 13-4 2. Indianapolis Colts: 12-5 3. Los Angeles Chargers: 12-5 4. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6 5. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6 6. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-7 7. Denver Broncos: 10-7 Wild Card Weekend: 2. Colts over 7. Broncos in the Peyton Manning Bowl 3. Chargers over 6. Bengals 5. Chiefs over 4. Ravens Divisional Round: 1. Bills over 5. Chiefs 2. Colts over 3. Chargers AFC Championship: 2. Colts over 1. Bills in the signature win of Matt Ryan's career (to that point) in a cold January road game
NFC Playoffs:
1. Dallas Cowboys: 12-5 2. Los Angeles Rams: 11-6 3. Minnesota Vikings: 11-6 4. New Orleans Saints: 11-6 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-6-1 6. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-7 7. Green Bay Packers: 10-7 Wild Card Weekend: 7. Packers over 2. Rams 6. Eagles over 3. Vikings 5. Buccaneers over 4. Saints Divisional Round: 7. Packers over 1. Cowboys 5. Buccaneers over 6. Eagles NFC Championship: 7. Packers over 5. Buccaneers Super Bowl LVII: (A2) Colts over (N7) Packers Super Bowl MVP: Jonathan Taylor
Award Winners:
MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills Offensive Player of the Year: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts Defensive Player of the Year: TJ Watt, DE, Steelers Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave, WR, Saints Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aiden Hutchinson, DE, Lions Comeback Player of the Year: Jameis Winston, QB, Saints Coach of the Year: Dennis Allen, Saints
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