DOL 2023 NFL Predictions/Preview

Tonight is one of the best nights of the year. Football is BACK with an incredible on-paper match-up. We've got the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, who not only won their 2nd Super Bowl in three tries since the 2019 campaign, but more importantly, the Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce stack won ya boi one of these. ​

KC starts its title defense against the offseason darling Detroit Lions. After a 1-6 start in 2022, Dan Campbell's squad finished 9-8 and ended Aaron Rodgers' Packer career with a prime-time L in a win and get in game. Everybody and their mother is picking them to make the playoffs, and while the Lions are primed to take the next step, they're still the Detroit Lions. Would it really shock anybody if they ended up being a 7-10 disappointment?

We'll get to all these takes and predictions in this blog; let's start with the AFC. Also, I didn't look at all the schedules, so these numbers might not add up, but this isn't a fucking math blog.

AFC East

Image Source

Dozo's Projected Standing:
1. Jets 11-5-1
2. Bills 11-6
3. Dolphins 9-7-1
4. Patriots 9-8

​I've been banging the Josh Allen is overrated drum for a few years now, and while the Bills have looked like an NFL team playing a Pop Warner squad the last few times they've played my Patriots, the fact remains that Josh Allen is a walking turnover. I don't think the Bills are gonna completely implode. They're incredibly talented and well-coached, but the Stefon Diggs situation is worth monitoring. He's not super happy from stories I read a while back and haven't checked back into since. Buffalo may be under the most pressure of any team in the league. Since they made the 2020 AFC Championship Game, people have expected them to take the next step, and it has yet to happen. It's crazy to say, but could their window be closing in a loaded AFC?

For only the 5th time in franchise history, the New York Jets will win the AFC East. I am all in on the Jets, and it has nothing to do with trolling or jinxes. Maybe I'm sipping the Hard Knocks flavor-aid a little too much, but everybody knows Dozo is a narrative guy, and I LOVE the Jets narrative. This team hasn't made the playoffs since 2010 (when they were on Hard Knocks), but had one of the league's best defenses last season. Aaron Rodgers still has plenty left in the tank and more to prove. Yes, he's won a Super Bowl, so he'll never get that Marino treatment, but it's also kind of crazy he hasn't been back since the 2010 season. It's a little strange to me that Rodgers wanted to go to New York since that's what Brett Favre did, and they've basically had the same career, but I think Aaron knows how much winning a Super Bowl with the Jets would mean to his legacy. Pedro Martinez once said that winning one ring in Boston was like three anywhere else, and that sentiment rings true here. I hate the Jets, but I respect their place in league history. They're a loser franchise, and Broadway Joe sold his soul to win Super Bowl III and solidify the AFL (#respect). Did you know NYJ hasn't had a 4000-yard passer since Namath became the first player in NFL/AFL history to eclipse that mark...IN 1967!!!!

The Dolphins are going to be right in the hunt. I wouldn't be shocked to see the AFC East end up with three playoff teams; I just don't believe in Tua.

Lastly, my New England Patriots. I expect to see some serious improvement on offense now that we have a real OC, but with the hardest schedule in the NFL, in arguably the toughest division, the odds are stacked against them. I don't think Mac Jones is as bad as Matt Patricia made him look last season, and with this defense, the Patriots will likely be in most of their games. It's more of a "the rest of the league is so much better" than a "they're not good enough" situation. This team went 8-9 last year while giving away multiple games. They're improved, and there's a path to 10-7 with this team, but even if they do get to double-digit wins, it may not be enough in a loaded AFC East. I am super excited to see how Dre and Zeke play together. The Pats have a legit chance to make the playoffs; I'm just not getting my hopes up.

AFC North

Image Source

Dozo's Projected Standings:
1. Bengals 12-5
2. Ravens 10-7
3. Steelers 9-8
4. Browns 7-10

Joe Burrow is the 2nd best QB in the NFL and while I don't think Zac Taylor is a great coach, the Bengals have one of the best rosters in the NFL. Yes, they've lost some heart and soul guys like Jesse Bates, but with an improved offensive line, I love their chances to get back to the Super Bowl. Obviously Burrow's health is paramount.

The Ravens have been one of the top AFC teams since Harbaugh showed up in 2008 and are expected to be right in the mix all season, as long as Lamar Jackson stays healthy. I know Pro Bowler Brent Huntley has shown glimpses, but he's not the guy. This team will go as far as Lamar takes them. From a personal POV, I hope Odell has a nice bounce back year and I need JK Dobbins/Gus Edwards to step up for my fantasy team.

I've seen a lot of people picking the Steelers to make the playoffs, I don't get it, but I've also learned that Mike Tomlin just doesn't have losing seasons. Last year, Pittsburgh was 2-6 and finished 9-8. It wouldn't shock me to see them fall below that mark this season, but with TJ Watt and an elite defense, this team is gonna be a tough out in 2023. Lots of talking heads expect Kenny Pickett to have the second year bump. With some awesome weapons, it wouldn't shock me, but this division is gonna kill each other like it always does.

Then there's the Browns. I really don't care about the Browns. I love Nick Chubb, but Watson can kick rocks. Maybe they'll be okay, but we all know the Browns aren't gonna do shit. Yeah they have "guys," but I'm pretty sure they don't have a kicker.  With Kareem Hunt gone, there's no back-up either.

AFC South

Image Source

1. Jaguars 12-5
2. Titans 8-9
3. Texans 5-12
4. Colts 4-13

The Swaguars are like the AFC Lions, except this core already has a playoff win under its belt. In one of the worst divisions, with a great coach-QB combo, many expect the Jags to repeat as AFC South champs, but like the Lions...it's the fucking Jags...would a disappointment really shock you? I love the Calvin Ridley addition for this offense. I still think their D has a long way to go (subpar pass rush), but they're clearly the class of this division...on paper.

I love Vrabel, and Derrick Henry is still a beast, but the Titans feel like a team in transition. I probably was too kind in assuming they'll win 8 games....but then Vrabel somehow leading this roster to the playoffs wouldn't shock me at all. IMO he's a top 5ish coach in the league.

Texans and Colts both have young exciting (maybe?) QBs and could turn some heads, but I'm not giving them much more time than that. Also, the Texans need new uniforms. 20 years of that fugliness is long enough.

AFC West

Image Source

1. Chiefs 11-6
2. Broncos 10-7
3. Chargers 9-8
4. Raiders 4-13

As long as the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, they're gonna be a playoff contender. While the Chris Jones hold out and Kelce injury are concerning, this team has a little Patriot in them. With Andy Reid and Mahomes, they're always in the mix. As a Mahome owner in fantasy, I wanna see his play well, but I am also so ready like Goose, for another team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

I'm not ready to give up on Russell Wilson. The fact that Sean Payton is calling him out for worrying more about his image than playing makes me think the Broncos are due for a serious bounce back. Their defense was elite last season, if Russ can be SERVICEABLE this team can win double digit games and fight for a wild card spot. If this team wins the West, give Payton COTY.

I love Herbert and the Chargers roster is super fun, but Brandon Staley is not an NFL head coach. If SAN DIEGO was smart, they would've fired him after blowing a 27-0 lead last year in the Wild Card round. The Chargers should be good on paper, but they seem to always end up one of the most injured teams in the league. They'll be in the hunt, but I don't think they make the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if they start like 5-2 and miss the dance.

The Raiders are a disaster. Chandler Jones can't get into the weight room. I love Jimmy G, but I don't think he's a good fit for this team. He thrived in SF with an elite defense and the Raiders haven't had a good D since Howie Long. Josh McDaniels could end up back in New England by Thanksgiving.

AFC PLAYOFFS:

1. Bengals 12-5
2. Jaguars 12-5
3. Jets 11-5-1
4. Chiefs 11-6
5. Bills 11-6
6. Ravens 10-7
7. Broncos 10-7

Wild Card Round: #2. Jaguars over #7 Broncos, #3 Jets over #6 Ravens, #5 Bills over #4 Chiefs

Divisional Round: #1 Bengals over #5 Bills, #3 Jets over #2 Jaguars
​
AFC Championship Game: #3 Jets over #1 Bengals 

NFC East:

Image Source

1. Eagles 12-5
2. Cowboys 10-7
3. Giants 8-9
4. Commanders 7-10

I feel kinda lame picking the Cowboys, but I mean, it's fucking now or never for these guys. They've got all the talent in the world, and that's precisely why I'm flip-flopping again and picking the Eagles to repeat as division champs. I think losing Kellen Moore will hurt Dallas and Philly is as hungry as ever after getting so close last season. Mike McCarthy isn't a good head coach, and while I have Dallas making the playoffs, they'll go one-and-done like basically every year (they got a great matchup with the ghost of the Bucs last year). The Commies need to change their fucking name to the Red Hogs, and Gmen will be a solid squad, but I don't think they're heading back to the playoffs. Sorry, I procrastinated and need to get this out before kickoff. NFC analysis isn't my swag. I'm an AFL man.

NFC North:

Image Source

1. Lions 11-6
2. Bears 9-8
3. Vikings 8-9
4. Packers 7-10

I'm buying into the Lions hype. Jared Goff is solid; I love what Campbell's building there. I want the Lions to be good for their city and may be thinking with my heart more than my brain here. Justin Fields will take the next step as a passer. I love the DJ Moore addition for him. Minnesota falls back to earth after losing Cooks, Thielen, a few defensive pieces, and the Packers struggle with Jordan Love. I've seen people getting frisky and picking the Pack to win the division. I mean, maybe? I think they're too young, and while losing Rodgers could help the locker room,  I'm expecting a down year in Wisconsin.

NFC South

Image Source

1. Saints 9-8
2. Panthers 8-9
3. Falcons 8-9
4. Buccaneers 7-10

Maybe it's my northern bias, but this division is the most irrelevant and inconsequential in the NFL this year. The AFC South is close, but the Jags should be so good they make up for it. I think any NFC South team could win this division with like 7 to 9 wins and frankly don't care who that team is, none of them are built to go deep in the playoffs.

New Orleans feels like the safest pick. I think Carr will do well in the Dome and defensively there's enough (#vague). Maybe Carolina will surprise some people with their offseason additions? Falcons and Bucs? I'm sure they'll score some points and give up even more. I'm not wasting anymore time talking about the NFC South.

NFC West

Image Source

1. 49ers 12-5
2. Seahawks 9-8
3. Rams 5-12
4. Cardinals 2-15

​The 49ers are the most talented team in the NFL, and if Purdy didn't get hurt in the NFCCG, they could easily be the ones with a shiny Super Bowl ring. I'm kind of biased; they're my Madden team, and I LOVE Kittle like a cousin. Health is the key for every team, but the 49ers cannot afford to lose C-Mac, Kittle, etc, even though Shanahan is great at plugging guys in.

I'm sure Seattle will still be good. I love that Bobby Wagner is back. Geno's Renaissance was one of the best storylines in 2022; I hope he builds off it this season. The Seahawks will be a fringe playoff team again in 2023, but bringing back their '80s jerseys for throwbacks should inflate their record by a game or two.

The Rams are a mess. McVay has had a foot out the door even before they won it all. Arizona will be the worst team in the NFL by a decent margin. Gannon is going to end up being this year's Nate Hackett.

NFC PLAYOFFS:

1. 49ers 12-5
2. Eagles 12-5
3. Lions 11-6
4. Saints 9-8
5. Cowboys 11-6
6. Seahawks 9-8
7. Bears 9-8

Wild Card Round: #2 Eagles over #7 Bears, #3 Lions over #6 Seahawks, #5 Cowboys over #4 Saints

Divisional Round:  #1 49ers over #5 Cowboys, #2 Eagles over #3 Lions

NFC Championship Game: #1 49ers over #2 Eagles

SUPER BOWL 58 (DOZAAAAAHHHHH):

Jets over 49ers
SB MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Award Winners:

MVP: Joe Burrow (CIN)
OPOY: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
DPOY: Micah Parsons (DAL)
OROY: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)
DROY: Christian Gonzalez (NE)
Coach of the Year: Doug Pederson (JAX)
Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin (BUF)

P.S.

I love how there's more football now with the 17-game season, but especially with the league starting on 9/7...I fucking hate how it ruined NFL record math. I wanna say 3-13, 12-4, 8-8, etc. so badly....but nope..it's this ugly 10-7 BS. By the time I'm finally used it, the 18-game season will have started, but at least then they'll be an even number of games.