DOL 2023 (plz respect the league year) Conference Championship Sunday Picks/Preview

I'm still riding high from my divisional round picks, going 4-0 and finally hitting a nice lil SGP (+1038), but every real football fan knows that is a bittersweet day. As SNL reminded us last night, football is almost over. Today, two teams will punch their tickets to Vegas for Super Bowl Dozo (58), and before you know it, you'll get your Sundays back, but there will be a Scott Hanson-sized hole in your heart.

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We've got two great (on paper) matchups with plenty of narratives and X-factors. We're getting v close to kickoff, so let's get to the games.

AFC Championship Game:

(3) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (1) Baltimore Ravens. M&T Bank Stadium. 3:00 PM. CBS & Paramount+.

Despite the Ravens' success, this is the first AFC Championship Game in Baltimore since 1971, when the Baltimore Colts beat the Oakland Raiders. R.I.P. both franchises playing in those cities.

We can break down X's and O's all you want. You want me to tell you the 2023 Ravens only give up 16.5 PPG (which was the best in the league)? You got it. The Chiefs defense is no slouch either, yielding the 2nd fewest PPG in the league at 17.3. That's all well and good, but we all know this game is all about the quarterbacks. Will likely MVP Lamar Jackson make enough plays against a tough Chiefs D? Are Patrick Mahomes' pass catchers not named Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice gonna let perfect passes slip through their fingertips? It's gonna be a wet and windy game, which is not ideal for bad WRs. Both teams have strong running games, although Pacheco is banged up.

I love both kickers hitting over 1.5 FGs. I already have that in an SGP with a Lamar rushing TD, at least one Gus Edwards reception and Kelce recording a 21+ yard reception.

Chiefs G Joe Thuney is out and will miss his first career playoff game, which does not bode well for KC. Even if they pull off the "upset" today, he'll likely miss the Super Bowl. 

Mark Andrews is set to return for the Ravens, and even though he's an All-Pro caliber player with three pro bowl berths, he's the biggest X-factor in this game. If the Ravens can get a classic Mark Andrews game, like 6 catches for 80-something yards and a tuddy, we might get saved from yet another Chiefs Super Bowl appearance.

IMO, it's a good ole fashioned head vs. heart matchup. My head says the Ravens are the best team in football, but my heart says Patrick Mahomes. Anytime you can get Mahomes at plus money, you have to take it (which I am going to). I hope whoever wins this game gets killed by the NFC champs, but the fix may be in. When Shawn Smith is the head ref, road teams win about 10% more than usual. It doesn't take a master in conspiracies to know the NFL would rather have the Chiefs in the Super Bowl to get the Taylor Swift audience. Stavvy baby and Michael Phelps don't quite move the needle the same way. 

Chiefs 30
Ravens 27

NFC Championship Game:

(3) Detroit Lions vs. (1) San Francisco 49ers. Levis Stadium. 6:30 PM. FOX.

The Lions are the only team left without an elite defense, which worries me against perhaps the most loaded offense in the league. Deebo's playing, but luckily for Detroit, Brock Purdy is still the 49ers QB. Don't let the hype and feel-good storyline fool you. He's just a guy. He's a solid game manager, but last week showed us both sides of the Purdy coin. The 49ers should win this game, but the Lions are live af. It wouldn't shock me if Purdy struggled.

If I were Dan Campbell, I'd want the ball first. Go down, score, and put the heat on San Fran immediately. SF is built to play with a lead and doesn't get run on a bunch because of this. The Lions have a two-headed monster in the backfield, so if they're in a spot where they don't have to abandon the running game, we could be primed for the upset.

Both teams are full of lovable dudes that I'd like to see win rings, and while it's lame to go with the favorite, these Niners are too good. The Lions have been an awesome story and if they prove me wrong I won't be upset at all, but unless Purdy throws three picks, the Niners should take care of business. At this point, CMC is like -4000 to score a touchdown, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him find the endzone multiple times tonight. I'm debating taking Lions +7, but probably just gonna go the prop route. Sorry I rushed this blog and am feeling self conscious about its quality, but today we're more concerned with hitting some parlays.

Also, don't forget that 49ers ROOKIE kicker Jake Moody has been shaky at times this season and his entire family is Lions fans. I'm not saying he's gonna throw the game, but the human brain is a weird thing...what if it comes down to him late and he just can't be the one who kills the Lions.

49ers 34
Lions 30