I've mentioned it in previous blogs the last weekish, but ICYMI, #TooManyLegs makes its triumphant return on Sunday.....BUT, there's a game tonight. I don't hate teasing Bucs down to -3, but with Ravens dropping like flies and COVID still a factor for the foreseeable future, I'm opting to wait until gameday to release my picks.
That being said, it's Ed Sheeran opening night, baby! You know, Ole Dozo's gotta have a little action on the game.
Now everybody has their gambling strategies. Call me crazy, but I love big payouts. That's why I play the inside in Roulette. I'll bet a spread or point total at -110 like everybody else, but I'm a huge teaser/parlay/prop guy. In those situations, you can afford to have a losing record and still be profitable. Like how TML went 6-10 last regular season at +47 units.
As of now, I'm not touching the spread or total, but I LOVEEEEEEEE this Tom Brady prop.
In 17 week 1 starts (we're excluding 2008 when he tore his ACL), Tom Brady has thrown three or more touchdowns eight times. Three of those eight games were banner nights (2002, 2004, and 2015) like tonight. If you want to get cute, Brady threw 4 TDs in week 5 vs. the Browns in 2016, which was technically his first start of the season.
Last season, TB12 threw 40 touchdowns. While a regression wouldn't shock me at all (that was his 2nd highest single-season total), I still think 30+ is a fairly safe assumption. Between the Opening-Ring-Night juices flowing and a packed house for the first time in his Tampa career, I love this bet. You know Old Man Brady still has a giant gluten-free avocado chip on his shoulder. He knows all about Peyton's 7 TDs vs. the Ravens in 2013. With the Sherriff getting inducted into Canton a few weeks back, it wouldn't shock me to see Brady go after his NFL lore moment as a "lol, I'm still dominating in mid-40s" moment. TBH, I might sprinkle a little more cheddar on this over. The Bucs ground game worries me about a potential vulture situation, but that's why they call it gambling!
Brady OVER 2.5 Touchdown passes. LOCKED IN.
Best of luck in your wagers this season (unless they conflict with mine).
I wouldn't hate to see a couple of Brady's 3+ touchdown passes go to Gronk, FOR FANTASY PURPOSES ONLY. I took a 10th round flyer on my guy, sue me (I picked 10th overall).
SEMI-RARE TRIPLE P.S.
I haven't bet on sports since Game 6 of the NBA when I took OVER .5 three pointers for Giannis and that hit. I also crushed the Super Bowl to end an Arctic Monkeys like cold streak. I'm low key hot rn, just spread out over seven months.