I'm going peel back the DOL onion a little bit and tell you a secret.
Yesterday, I was writing my preview/pick blog for Divisional Weekend as I always do every year; at the last minute; which I also always do.
(Now that I think I figured out semi-colons they're gonna be LITTERED across DOL like cigarette butts)
My friend/slash roommate mentioned lunch at Texas Road House with another friend of ours and before you know I'm drinking $1.99 pints of Bud Light and sawmill gravy; ruining all the progress I've made since July. Luckily it's truly back on the wagon tomorrow. Basically, even though I knew going to lunch meant the odds of my finishing the blog were going to drop exponentially; I couldn't say no. #addict. hashtag goodguythathasahardtimesayingnotofriends.
I'm going to do something I've never done before; post a draft. What you are about to see is exactly how my divisional round blog looked before I made the decision to abort in favor of reasonably-priced-chain-food. Side note: My mom would be soooooo mad at me. I ordered my mac & cheese with pulled pork as one of my two sides and one of my boys ordered his mashed potatoes (Herbie) fully-loaded for one of his; both came stock. No pulled pork or bacon bit bells and whistles. Neither of us complained (to the waitress) and yes we were both still charged the full 99 cents each. This added $1.98 to the bill and that's not even considering additional taxes and tipping from the mistake (because of course we still tipped great; hashtag good guy). The awkwardness of bringing it up was worth far more than $1.98 + fees that would've been saved. I wanted to say something on principle, but did not want to see if my roommate was bluffing about what he said he would if I brought it up.
All the mistakes and all the information I already gathered. A real look behind the genius. Then I'll give you the Sunday picks. I will say a code word when the new blog begins. After this song that I'm sure you won't play the draft begins.
The divisional round is where I shine. I even had the score predicted perfectly forPackers-Cowboys in 2016-17 (when I went 3-1). I went 2-2 in 2017-18 and 3-1 in 2018-19. For the first time in the history of DOL; not only will the Patriots not be appearing in the Super Bowl but it's their first playoff appearance since 2009 that ended before the defacto "best weekend" of football. It's not ideal, but does make the weekend a little less stressful. Of the 8 teams left the only one I would really hate to see win it all is the Texans and I'd say they're the weakest of the remaining so probably safe there.
Vikings @ 49ers (-7)
The Vikings shocked the football world when they beat the Saints in the playoffs for the 2nd time in three years. The 13-3 Saints became the first 13 win team in league history to lose in the wild card round. I saw a ton of graphics for that since the game. It's really not that shocking of a stat when only three `13-3 teams have played in that game.
The 49ers went 13-3 just like the Saints, but since they beat them in one of the best games of the regular season they're the one seed with home field throughout the NFC playoffs.
This game is tough for me because the QB play has been basically a wash this season. Jimmy G may be sexier (in more ways than one) so people would assume he's the better QB and had the better year, but 2019 has been Kirk's best and most efficient year.
On Friday's Pardon My Take Warren Sharp mentioned how much the Vikings struggle against 22 p
Texans @ Chiefs (-10)
Texans @ Chiefs (-10)
Seahawks @ Packers (-4)
Two of the most prestigious organizations of the 2010s with spot in the NFCCG on the line. Both have "struggled" in the 2nd half the decade. Seattle hasn't been to the conference championship game since the 2014 season; when they famously came back down 16-0 against the Pack. The Packers did make the NFC title game in the 2016 season, but missed the playoffs entirely in '17 and '18.
Both teams have been the kings of "winning ugly" this year. Aaron Rodgers
As you can see I never even got to make a pick as I bounced around. I swear on the blog I was going to pick the Vikings and Titans to win. Had I bet those it would've been a v nice day, but I have taken the weekend off as I try to do the responsible thing and save money. Titans winning was so fucking bittersweet. I made the mistake of putting Texans @ Chiefs twice while trying to quickly add photos and headings. This way if I somehow was able to finish on my phone (the Weebly app sorta stinks and when I use the browser it crashes; A LOT)
Okay here's the Sunday slate.
Texans @ Chiefs (-10)
I have been one of the biggest bashers of the Houston Texans for YEARS. I've featured this tweet:
in multiple blog posts. They were on the OG 2015 Fraud List that has since been lost to the annals of time with my fallen twitter account :( I do not believe in this organization.
I bet Bills ML last week and God damnit did that not sent in motion a horrible domino effect. Had they won I was gonna emotional hedge Titans ML against the Pats. The Bills straight up gave that game away and while some credit has to be given to the Texans for coming back; IMO that was much more of a Bills loss than Texans win. But they won, they're track #3 on TEN; alive.
The Chiefs are a team I have a strange relationship with. I don't have a second team; I'm not that kind of fan! But there are certainly teams I have a soft spot for and the Chiefs are one of them. I am a student of the game and huge AFL history guy. I love Lamar Hunt and what he did for the game. They've always been kind of harmless as I've ripped their playoff futility ad nauseam. I love Andy Reid. I am not a Mahomes guy, but a large part of that is because of my love for Alex Smith (another Fraud List member; I'm REAL even guys I love can be frauds) although that was obviously the smart football move. I also didn't believe in him at the draft so of course part of me is butthurt I was incredibly wrong about him (although he STILL hasn't won a Super Bowl!) As a chief competitor of my beloved New England Patriots the last few seasons I cannot have these warm feelings I do for the mid-western folk. Now that they are dead, I would not mind seeing the Chiefs win it all. The sting of the Patriots basically beating them would go away I guess?
This is sort of the fraud bowl when you talk about playoff futility although as one team will move on they can clearly shake that label this year with a few more wins. I think 10 is a huge number, but if there's a team that can cover that in the playoffs it's the Chiefs. When two frauds are up against each other, take the lessor fraud. Despite the Chiefs being 2-38 in the playoffs at Arrowhead since Lenny Dawson (joke number; it's really 2-9) I just do not see Bill O' Brien winning a road playoff game.
If you want to state facts Bill O'Brien has two career playoff victories. The first was against Connor Cook making his first NFL start and the second was last week the Bills found away to out Bill themselves in the playoffs.
Andy Reid is the best coach in the big four that hasn't won a championship IMO. I do think he will get one someday, especially if he coaches the Chiefs for the next 5+ years. I could see a v similar career trajectory as newly elected HOFer, Bill Cowher. After years of playoff heartbreak and conference championship losses I think Andy Reid gets his Super Bowl and then calls it quits within three years. Last night was awesome with the Titans, but I don't see another 10 point dog winning outright. Yes, I know Bill Cowher retired less than a year after winning it all. John Madden is another great example. HOF Class of 2006.
Seahawks @ Packers (-4)
Gonna do a quick blog for this during the game so the Chiefs pick is on wax before kickoff.
LIVE DURING THE CHIEFS GAME:
I may edit that part if there's mistakes because I just wanted to get it out before kickoff, but I will not change the pick. Chiefs 34 Texans 20.
In a way this is another fraud bowl; both teams are not nearly as good as their record states. I don't love point differential, but both have PDs of teams that finish around .500.
The Seahawks won in the wild card round game by larger margin (8) than their regular season PD (+7). What I said in the earlier blog draft is relevant. Wow Kenny Stills walk in TD busted coverage as I type this. Not great for the pick! But there's no money on the line so whatever. I wanna see the Titans win the AFC either way.
I love both these QBs and really hope both play well. I wanna see another classic Rodgers Sunday afternoon divisional game like the Cowboys one a few years ago. I hope the winner of this game represents the NFC in the Super Bowl because I have zero interest in the 49ers winning it all this year. Not this year. It sucks because I like a lot of them, but just cannot happen this year. I hope it's the Seahawks, but I think it's going to be a tough battle. Not gonna lie this Texans hot start is making me nervous.
While Pete Carroll has one of the most notable coaching misfires in sports history; he's a damn good coach.I have a ton of respect for him. Matt LaFleur is a rookie HC, meaning this is his first career playoff game. I am being biased and going with experience. Pete Carroll is like 83 years old and taking his shirt off with DK Metcalf like how can you not fuck with him? LaFleur could end up being the guy going forward, but I just don't see it. Even though I'm a nice eyebrows guy, I don't think the NFL is there yet to have a coach who clearly gets his brows did in the Super Bowl. Maybe in three years?
The Seahawks are 7-1 on the road and the Packers went 7-1 at home. This is the Diane Keaton Something's Gotta Give Low Key Fraud Bowl.
For entertainment purposes I really don't want to see another Aaron Rodgers 0 TD pass win that we're accustomed to in 2019 (it's still the league year).
I've been riding Seattle all year and have no intentions of jumping off the bandwagon yet. They are my madden team! I am a Rodgers fan, but he has been asi-asi at home in the playoffs when they get there. We've seen the layoff effect the Ravens and Chiefs so far; I think it continues.