Disclaimer: Only gamble legally AND responsibly. I don't want anybody losing their sporting goods store because I'm trying to show Barstool how many hats I can wear #HireDozo.
It's Week 4 of the 2020 NFL Season and the Too Many Legs Teaser of the Week has literally never lost. 2-0 this season. (Week 3 Recap)
I'm 16-0 picking teaser legs the last two weeks; 22-1 overall in 2020 (The Too Many Legs Teaser of the Week was born Week 2, even though I retroactively referred to my first teaser of the year as such in this tweet).
Football is the ultimate game of adjustments and that cliché, is being put to the test as we have already one game rescheduled to Week 7 (Titans-Steelers) and the status of Patriots @ Chiefs is still very much up in the air after Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19; although as I write this blog, news has come out that no other Patriots have tested positive. It appears we're looking at a Monday Night Football double-header.
The Patriots, Chiefs, Titans and Steelers have all been used at some point in the Too Many Legs Teaser so I too have to adjust. I loved teasing the original over of Pats-Chiefs down, but now with Brian Hoyer technically playing QB, I am not touching that game with a 6 foot pole.
The last two weeks I have been absolute gambling rollercoasters where I didn't spend a ton of time researching, I just used my brain and football IQ. Despite the new format, that won't change here despite minor write ups about why I'm including each pick.
Bucs -1 (from -7)
Of all the games I'm teasing this week, I feel the most confident about Bucs -1. Even with no Godwin or Fournette the Bucs still have enough to outscore the Chargers who are 30th in the NFL in scoring, despite being 6th in yards. Tom Brady is in his third decade of professional football and Justin Herbert is making his first career road start. After a bad week one, Brady seems to have things figured out. Give me the Bucs.
I think this is the week we finally see Gronk reach the end zone.
Browns + 9.5 (from +3.5) and OVER 50 (from over 56)
Neither of these teams play a lick of defense. Dallas has allowed the 29th most points in the league and the Browns aren't much better at 24th. Let's not forget Dem Cowboys are an onside kick away from being 0-3. For the first time since December of 2014 the Browns have a winning record (2-1). Sure, I'm a little worried that this is the type of matchup that has "get right game for the Cowboys" written all over it, but I Baker has been really good at handing off the ball to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I think the Browns can keep it close and both teams score 24+ so give me that teased over even though as I type this I'm never serious second thoughts.
Seahawks +0.5 (from -5.5)
People in sports media are trying to talk the Dolphins upset into existence, I just don't see it. Russell Wilson is 14-4 on the east coast according to Steve Mariucci on NFL Network this morning and Fitzpatrick just had his Fitzmagic moment last week. Against a suspect at best Seahawks defense, we may see glimpses of Fitzmagic, but the common sense play here is Seahawks at essentially a pick-em, even with the long trip from Seattle.
Bears +9 (from +6)
I don't think Phil Rivers will fair well in Bear weather. Big Dick Nick just needs to keep it within single digits. Bears are 3-0, but getting zero respect. I might have to sprinkle Chicago ML.
Saints +3 (from -3)
Michael Thomas is out and Drew Brees looks like he's 84 years old (huge that he's playing in a dome), but again, we don't need to overthink and get cute. The Lions won last week to end an 11 game losing streak dating back to last season. Do we really think the Saints are going to start 1-3 AND the Lions are going to win back-to-back games? I don't, but even if that somehow happens it won't be by more than a FG so we've got a little breathing room, but Saints win outright.
Bengals +5 (from -1)
At 0-2-1, the Bengals are so close to a win you can taste it. Joe Burrow is playing great while Gardiner Minshew is looking great with his bodacious stache. I don't think this Jaguars team can beat anybody by a touchdown so Bengals +5 it is.
Bills/Raiders OVER 47 (from 53)
Last week the Bills went up 28-3 before going down 32-28 and ultimately winning 35-32. That's 67 points in total. I'm not saying it'll be that high, but this Bills team can both score and give up scores rather quickly. I think the Raiders are gonna come out hot after getting shut down last week in Foxboro. We'll likely see the winner in the 30's so I feel comfortable with over 47.
Again, please gamble responsibly and legally. After starting the season 22-1, the eyes are on me, but let's not forget that I don't love the board today. #HireDozo.