DOL Too Many Legs Teaser of the Week (Week 9)

As we officially enter the second half of the 2020 NFL Season the DOL #TooManyLegs Teaser of the Week sits at 4-3 and 46-9-1 in legs overall.  All it takes is one bad leg to bring a teaser tumbling to the ground, but last week there were plenty of faulty legs to point the finger at. Week 8 was statistically the teaser's worst showing of 2020. My bad for thinking I could outsmart the wind.  After being woken up by an earthquake this morning I definitely don't want to get on Mother Nature's bad side. I might even tease an under this week to make up for it.

#TooManyLegs Teaser Legs in 2020:
Week 2-7: 42-5-1
Week 8: 4-4

Any given Sunday.

— Doz #hiredozo (@DozonLife) November 1, 2020

There's no denying that the #TooManyLegs teaser has certainly cooled off after a blistering hot 3-0 start, but if my math is correct (10+10+10-1-1+8-1)  we're still +35 units. I think we'll settle with over 50% at +1000. 

Previous weeks:
Week 2 and 3
Week 4
Week 5 (booo Bengals)
​Week 6
Week 7 (Week 7 victory recap)
Week 8

We're not gonna just sit here and cry like Andy Bernard in front of Aaron Rodgers, there's still half a season of football to play and plenty to be excited about both this week and going forward. With a chance to fall to .500 on the season the heat is on like Glenn Frey (R.I.P.). Let's get back in the winner's circle.

Here's this week's teaser.

Seahawks +3 (from -3)

I really wanted to include the teased over in this week's bet, but the Bills offense has not been super impressive the last month of the season.  After a 4-0 start where they averaged 30.75 PPG and Josh Allen was making his way into the MVP conversation the Bills have scored 16, 17, 18 and 24 points their last four games. Seattle's defense has not played well this season, allowing over 28 PPG, but Jamal Adams is back and new addition Carlos Dunlap just went from one of the worst to one of the best teams in the NFL; expect a burst of life on a God awful D-line as well. This game should be a lot of fun, but with no fans in Buffalo I think Seattle wins and covers the real spread; getting them at +3 is little disaster insurance. Russell Wilson is 9-1 in the regular season vs the AFC East!

Broncos +10 (from +4)

The Broncos are frisky AF. After starting 0-3 they're 3-4; Last week they erased a 21 point deficit against the Chargers. They aren't going anywhere this season, but outside of the Chiefs and Bucs games (two of the best teams in the NFL) they'll hang around with anybody. The 2-6 Falcons certainly fall into the "anybody" category.  In this Super Bowl XXXIII rematch, I expect the Broncos to keep it within single digits; especially with Calvin Ridley out for the Falcons. 

Bears/Titans OVER 40.5 (from 46.5)

The Bears and Titans have both dropped back to back games after accumulating 5 wins. They both need a win BAD to stay alive in their divisional races, so I'm expecting points in "let's get back on track" week for both teams. Sure, the Bears offense is not good. The eye test tells you that as well as the actual numbers, but the Titans defense may be just what the Doctor ordered. 

Highest Opponent 3rd Down Conversion%
> Week 1-8 of a NFL season (since 1991)

61.9% Titans (2020) #Titans
55.9% Bengals (2018)
54.8% 49ers (2002)
54.6% Colts (1991)
54.2% Panthers (2020) #KeepPounding
54.1% Falcons (2018)
53.0% Falcons (2019)
52.4% Washington (1993)

— René Bugner (□) (@RNBWCV) November 4, 2020

I'll always think of Nick Foles as the dude who shredded the Patriots in the Super Bowl and with Derrick Henry on the other team 40.5 is just too low to not love.

Ravens +7 (from +1) and Ravens/Colts OVER 42 (from 48)

I don't believe in the Ravens. They are at the very least fraud-adjacent. They beat the teams they should beat and choke when it matters most. They should've beaten the Steelers last week and that's exactly why I'm taking them here.  I do respect Harbaugh and think they get them to bounce back. Sure, Marlon Humphrey is out, but the Colts are just like their owner in the sense of you never know what to expect. I'm not sure if they're actually good, so the Ravens have a great chance here.  We don't even need them to win, just keep it within a touchdown. Can you keep it within a touchdown, Ravens? If you want to be taken seriously you need to win this game.

We're also taking the teased over because this game has both teams in at least mid 20's written all over it I don't need stats to back that up.

Panthers/Chiefs OVER 45.5 (from 51.5)

I'll be honest, not too much research went into this pick and I'm starting to get a little worried since I just learned the Chiefs are giving up only 19 points a game. But Christian McCaffery is back so fuck it; these offenses can get it done.

Texans -0.5 (from -6.5)

In a battle of 1-6 teams coming off a bye, one has a franchise QB and the other is starting has a rookie making his NFL debut; for that reason I'm going with the Texans even though I hate myself for putting us in a situation where we need count on the Houston Texans. In a battle of stinky defenses, we're hoping the 31st most efficient defense can hold Jake Luton in check.

The Texans and Jaguars rank 31st and 32nd in the NFL in Defensive Efficiency

The total for their game today is 48 @betthepigskin #BarstoolSportsbook pic.twitter.com/fM7prFYxdK

— Bets Stats (@betsstats) November 8, 2020

Giants/Football Team UNDER 49 (from 43)

For the first time in the HISTORY of the #TooManyLegs teaser I am including an under in the action.  Am I happy about it? Of course not, unders suck more than Imagine Dragons, but look at it this way....at over 49 we need to find 7 touchdowns and successful PATs to just push. Can you find seven touchdowns between these teams because I can't. Plus the Giants and Football Team both have sneaky okay defenses. It should be an ugly NFC Least game in D.C. so for the first time all season I am teasing an under. Good luck!