After starting the season 3-0 overall and 24-0 on legs, you could say I've cooled off significantly as the #TooManyLegs Teaser is now 4-5; legs are 58-13-1.
Week 2 and 3
Week 5 (booo Bengals)
Week 7 (Week 7 victory recap)
The days of saying #TwoManyLegs Teaser had LITERALLY never lost feels like 50 years ago. Sure, I could make excuses and say that 4-5 is still pretty fucking good for an 8 leg teaser that pays +1000 (even better if you're offshore) by someone who isn't even playing fantasy football this year and in the midst of 1/3 life crisis, but I'm not gonna do that. 1-5 in our last 6 is the reality of this situation.
To steal from one of my future boss' twitter bio and Samuel Becker:
I've failed you, the DOL readers, five of the last six weeks; good for 83.33333333% of the time. I certainly have tried and failed again and I'm not gonna stop now. One day I'll stop being such a giant pussy and email some samples to Coley, but today we get back to .500!!!
Here are the legs of the DOL Too Many Legs Teaser of the Week (Week 11).
Falcons/Saints OVER 43.5 (from 49.5)
Since Raheem Morris took over for Dan Quinn in Week 6 the Falcons are 3-1 and averaging over 30 points a game. If it wasn't for Todd Gurley scoring when he shouldn't have against the Falcons they'd be 4-0, but we don't care about that. What matters here is that Falcons offense has figured things out the last month.
The Saints are without Drew Brees and somewhat surprisingly opted to start Taysom Hill over Jameis Winston. Last year the Saints went 5-0 without Bree when Teddy Bridgewater filled in, so many people assumed this year if Brees went down again that Jameis would fill that role and Taysom Hill would remain the Swiss Army Knife of this offense.
I can't say I'm too shocked here. I like Jameis and it'd be fun to watch him play again, but you kinda know who he is (although he did get Lasik, so maybe not?). The Saints gave Taysom Hill 16 million guaranteed and with Drew Brees likely retiring after the season they need to know like Marc Anthony if Taysom is an NFL QB or a Mormon Tim Tebow who has an easier time buying scissors.
I am so excited to see this game and have no idea what to expect in terms of victory, but I do expect points even though Taysom Hill is making his first career start and only has attempted 18 passes the last three years. When you can tease down to below that special 44 total with offenses like this, even with the uncertainty in Hill, with the Saints weapons and the Falcons being the Falcons I think we can break that magic 44 point threshold.
Patriots +3.5 (from -2.5)
Tom Brady may be gone, but the Patriots still own the Houston Texans. They are their daddies, I don't care if they actually beat the Pats last year on SNF. That team had DeAndre Hopkins and a heartbeat, this team is 2-7 and going nowhere fast.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are 4-5, 10th in the AFC and still in the thick of the AFC wild card hunt. The strength of the Pats is running the ball and the Texans have statistically the worst rushing defense in the NFL (allowing over 167 yards/game). Obviously I'm biased as a Pats fan, but I think this team has found their identity and should be able to expose the Texans greatest weakness. Should something crazy happen we still have Texans by a field goal insurance at Pats +3.5.
Packers +8 (from +2)
This game is a true crapshoot as both of the teams teams records will tell you they're good, when the eyes may say otherwise. Can they Packers hold up against a physical team like the Colts who boast the league's best defense? Can the Colts beat a good football team? I'm truly not sure, but gun to my head I think Aaron Rodgers can keep the Packers within a score of the Colts. I might even sprinkle GB ML.
Bengals/Football Team OVER 41.5 (from 47.5)
In a match up of two win teams, both are actually not as awful as you'd expect. I love both of these QBs and think that we'll end up somewhere around 26-23 which is clearly over 41.5 points. I was riding both of these teams in the early, successful days of Too Many Legs so I need to pay my respects.
Titans/Ravens OVER 44 (from 50)
In a rematch of the Divisional Round, both teams are desperate for a win to stay in the AFC's Top 7, neither defense is playing well, I think we're going to see a ground and pound shootout. Yes that's possible!
Vikings -1 (from -7)
I don't love betting on the Vikings, but the Cowboys have allowed the most points in the NFL and I just don't see anyway on earth the Cowboys can outscore the Vikings (as long as Kirk Cousins doesn't turn the ball over more than twice).
Dolphins +2.5 (from -3.5)
When the Dolphins benched Fitzmagic at 3-3, I was one of the many people who thought they were giving Tua the keys too soon. Clearly I was wrong; Miami has won three straight with Tua and six overall. I love what Miami is building (Flores is my coach of the year pick as of now) and the Broncos are dead ass one of the worst teams in the NFL. No over thinking here, the Dolphins win outright.
Chiefs -1.5 (from -7.5)
The Chiefs only loss of the season was to the Raiders in Week 5. Afterwards the Raiders had a little victory lap in the KC parking lot. This is what you call a revenge game. Andy Reid is like 49-6 all time coming off a bye (actually 18-3) and like I just said 2 seconds ago; REVENGE GAME. Chiefs will kill the Raiders tonight or at least win by more than 2 points to close out a great bounce week for the teaser.
Good luck and always bet responsibly.