Last week's teaser legs went 5-3, which is not the perfection we're looking for to cash tickets. I thought we'd see some Week 1 fireworks, but instead the Falcons decided to have the most Falcons offensive showing of all time. In retrospect I should've stayed away from the total in Pats/Dolphins with all the unknowns, but whenever I can get a total below 40 it's hard to stay away.
The theme I've heard around the league this week from various NFL programs is this the bounce back week. We shouldn't overreact to Week 1 so much, blah, blah, blah, although I have to agree. The 2001 Carolina Panthers and 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars both started 1-0 then dropped 15 straight. The Titans aren't as terrible as the Cardinals and Taylor Lewan made them look. Aaron Rodgers might hate the Packers, but I don't think he fell off the cliff like Week 1 would show us. There's still 17 weeks of football left to play. The bounce back starts now. Let's get into the win column at a nice +1000 (or better depending on your book(ie) situation).
TML 2020 Results:
Week 2 and 3
Week 4; (Week 4 victory recap)
Week 5; (booo Bengals)
Week 7; (Week 7 victory recap)
Week 13; (Victory recap)
Week 15; (victory recap)
Broncos PK (teased from -6)
If it weren't for a couple of redzone turnovers last week (s/o former Patriot Logan Ryan for making a great play), the Broncos would've beaten the Giants even worse. While I do get a tad worried about another east coast game for the Broncos...it's the fucking Jaguars, and they made the Texans look like a playoff team last week. I don't believe in Urban Meyer, the NFL Head Coach, and I love what Vic Fangio's defense will do today. We just need a win; it may get ugly at times, but I am high on the Broncos, and if they're going to be a playoff team, they have to win this game. I believe they do. I took them in survivor.
Raiders +11 (teased from +5)
I teased the Steelers last week, and even though they won, I wasn't super impressed; that blocked punt TD changed the whole game. Their offense gives me major 2015 Broncos vibes; everything looks so hard from them. While I'm a tad worried about the Raiders on the East Coast AND coming off a win, I think they can at the very least keep it within 10 points. Give me the Raiiiiders +11.
Patriots PK (just winnnnn baby; teased from -6)
We can't look too deeply into Patriot-related stats highly impacted by that surgically gorgeous man who used to take the snaps, but the Patriots haven't started 0-2 since 2001. Bill Belichick is still the head coach, and he's 21-6 vs. rookie QBs plus the Patriots have won 10 straight against the Jets.
Zach Wilson was sacked 6 times last week. With all the new faces on the Pats defense, I think they should get at least half of that today (biiiig Matt Judon day). Patriots gave the game away last week; you know they had a hard week of practice and are ready to go into Metlife and win like they do every year. No chance they have 80+ penalty yards again. That I can guarantee.
Saints/Panthers OVER 39 (Teased from 45)
This exact leg cost TML Week 17 from cashing and being an even bigger success in 2020 BY A HALF POINT. This is my personal revenge game, plus, as past readers will know...both of these teams will get into the 20s. The over is 7-3 in these teams last 10 matchups, and while most of those were with Drew Brees, Jameis looked great last week, and there's simply no way he'd come crashing back to earth.... I'm thinking like 27-17. Too low to stay away.
Cardinals +2.5 (teased from -3.5)
If it weren't for some questionable coaching by Zac Taylor, the Vikings would've never sniffed OT. Kliff Kingsbury isn't a Rhodes Scholar by any means, but I think he's a better coach than Taylor. Cards win straight up. Kyler looked like a straight-up video game against the Titans.
Cowboys +9 (teased from +3)
I really like what the Chargers are building and won a little scratch on their live ML last week, but the Cowboys should've beaten the Bucs. I wouldn't be shocked to see SoFi at least 45% full of Cowboy fans. The Chargers could still win, but I love the Cowboys to keep it a one-score game. I almost teased the over but felt more comfortable this way.
Seahawks PK (teased from -6)
While I do expect the Titans to look better than they did last week, it's long way to Seattle and fans are back. I think the 12s play a big role in a Seahawk victory.
Chiefs +2.5 (teased from -3.5)
I'm not too fond of both of these teams, but when one QB calls the other his kryptonite, that's all I need to hear (0-3 vs. KC in his career). I don't see a 2004 Red Sox with Pedro situation playing out tonight. The Chiefs could go down 17 early, and they still wouldn't be dead. With the Ravens banged up, they're going to need to get into the high 30s to keep up with the Chiefs. Lamar did not look good vs. the Raiders (whose defense is NOTHING special), and he's going to have to rely on his arm tonight. Give me the Chiefs! Patrick Mahomes has *Chris Traeger voice* LITERALLY never lost in September (11-0 in his career). I'm totes cool with teasing past zero in this spot.
Best of luck and ALWAYS wager repsonsibly.